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THE EVOLUTION OF MANAGEMENT





from reacting to crises to accurate long-term planning





A Study in Thought






sa088



by





Marius Heuff

Chapter 1

Content

A sobering awareness.
If we are a "biological machine", it makes sense to study in detail the relevant biological mechanisms.
The importance of "guided events".
Slowly, the processes of chance-happenings and random distribution were replaced by an environment, where events were directed by templates, catalysts, enzymes and other factors.
The difference between "guidance" and "creation".
The driving forces of a guided event are "blind", without purpose, and without a goal, as they always were.
Man's creations often "evolve", because the feed-back from results, or the criteria of usefulness, influence the subsequent designs of complex tools; e.g., the automobile.
A remarkable parallel with the living organisation.
A confluence between the concepts of guidance and creation, when man "steers", deliberately, a natural event into a specific direction.
Every event is guided by the circumstances under which it takes place.
In the living organisation, the guidance-structures are the result of a long, evolutionary development; these guidance-structures are copied and carefully transmitted from one generation to the next.
Many animals can "create" circumstances that favour the occurrence of a, for them, favourable event; e.g., the capture of a prey.
Man can develop a conscious imagery of what he wants.
Symbolic representation, and the emergence of an incomparably more complex and wide-ranging reality perception.
A sphere of awareness with a very large time-frame.
A sophisticated ability to predict and foresee.
Man's grasp over complex realities is still increasing.
The increasing importance of management and predictability.
The need to manage, carefully, the terrestial life-support systems.

1 It is sobering to see ourselves as a fragile, soft, metabolising, multi-cellular unit of molecules and compounds, which has been built-up from the same atomic elements as the world of inorganic existence, and, it is sobering to realise, that our conscious awarenesses, our motivations and fears, our hopes and disappointments, all find a root in this same fragility of existence, and have been developed by the same blind force-fields of natural selection. It is sobering to realise, that all our faculties are tools to enhance this precious commodity for which we have to struggle so continuously; life.

2 If life is nothing more than a complex organisation to compensate for the instability and fragility of biochemical reaction-patterns, then, we are quite justified to pay a great deal of attention to the mechanisms of this organisation, which transforms a large number of essentially life-less atoms and molecules into a system, that can react to subtle environmental stimuli, and, which can manipulate natural forces and events for its own benefit. If the living organisation can be characterised by the peculiar way it can "guide" natural events in order to obtain its needs, then, we may, also, emphasise in the objectives and conscious awarenesses of the human being, the need to channel the happenings of events into a beneficial outcome.

3 If we are justifed to say, that, life began as a result of fortuitous circumstances, which "happened" to be at the right place to initiate this un-imaginable natural experiment of pre-cellular biochemical evolution, then, we are, also, justified to emphasise the fact, that, from the earliest moments of this biochemical, or, rather, proto-biochemical natural experiment, the evolution of life depended upon the emergence of "guiding substances". These are substances with the capability to guide the random processes of polymerisation and re-combination into a channel favouring the emergence of certain substances, or the occurrence of certain events, in preference over others.

4 In other words; as soon as nature started the experiment that led, eventually, at least, in our terrestial environment, to the development of the living, metabolising and reproducing cell, the processes of haphazard chance and random distribution of matter and events, were slowly replaced by an environment, where events and happenings were guided and directed by templates, catalysts, enzymes and other factors. This took the emergence of a particular substance out of the realm of "chance", and put it into the category of "being manufactured".

5 It is important to remind ourselves, here, about the fundamentally different concepts of "guidance" and "creation". Guidance, means, that an event occurs "perfectly naturally", and, that the forces that drive an event are, essentially, just as "blind" as they always were. However, the events do not appear to occur, anymore, in a "random way", depending upon the happenstance of the circumstances, such as we see, when water runs-off from a perfectly smooth and slightly sloping surface. A guided event is like a river with established river-banks, where a deep river-bed and well-defined banks guide the water molecules into a pre-existing path, as they dissipate their gravitational energy-content.

6 In the concept of "creation", we visualise a situation, where the existence of a river-bed has not emerged as the result of a long, natural process of evolution, but, as a result of a deliberate and conscious act, which has, suddenly, created the existence of such a water-way. We see this situation, when man digs a canal and deliberately diverts a flow of water into a channel of his own choosing.

7 We see, therefore, that the maintenance of the living organisation requires a faithful reproduction of a large number of complex substances, and, this requires, in turn, long sequences of well-protected and well-guided biochemical happenings. Without the manufacture of many complex substances, including the genetic code, the chances for a "spontaneous" emergence of the needed materials, would be so low, that, even, the simplest biochemical substances could not come into being without the guiding influence of template structures.

8 These structures guide the naturally occurring and essentially blind energy-potentials that drive the processes of cellular metabolism. Yet, the emergence of these guiding structures is the result of a long and essentially blind process of trial and error, where the products of a successful trial are rewarded with viability and become part of a complex genetic code, while the products of a trial that is not successful, lose, eventually, their viability and disappear.

9 Here, we see a remarkable parallel with the world of conscious human existence. During a spurt of technological innovation, man searches for many complex tools, such as an "auto-mobile", but, man is unable to design the perfect car from the start. Man begins with the realisation of a few ideas and a crude vehicle comes into being, but, as the years go by, a lot more people become interested in the use of such a vehicle, and, from year to year, more and more people, or, rather, groups of highly skilled engineers, contribute to the development of the automobile.

10 A number of manufacturers are, then, able to produce a number of models, or "species'" of vehicles, each with their own advantages and disadvantages, and, each appealing to a specific need or taste of the automotive public. Slowly a few types, or "species`", of vehicles come into existence, and, they have become, by then, remarkably complex machines. Automobiles, just like living organisms, also consist of a number of "organ systems", and, each system has a long evolutionary history, where many people over a number of generations, have contributed their skills and ideas.

11 When we look at the evolution of complex tools and machines, we see, that a long line of trials and errors is necessary, before a complex and sophisticated piece of machinery can be "created". Indeed, we see in this example, that the concepts of an anthropomorphic, specifically human ability to create, consciously, a thing of existence out of the imagination of the mind, starts to coincide with the concepts of natural evolution, where an essentially blind force selects, from successive generations of spectra, the most viable and efficient form of organisation, and, promotes this most successful segment as the parental generation for the next spectrum or generation. In the development of a complex tool, the same criteria of viability and the mechanisms of natural selection favour the survival of only a part of the existing spectrum of an entity in evolution.

12 We have argued these principles before, but, we want to recapitulate these ideas, here, briefly, because, one of the aims of this particular essay is to high-light the differences, as well as the similarities, between our concepts of randomness and deliberate choice; of natural evolution on the one hand, and a specific, conscious creativity on the other.

13 In the previous essay, we have sketched the earlier developments, and, we hope that we have done some justice to its title. Here, we want to continue this same line of thought, and, we want to show, that the experiences of man can be grasped coherently, if we continue to keep in mind this peculiar necessity of all living organisations; nl., to guide and direct a large number of natural events in such a way, that the results are beneficial for this organisation.

14 It is obvious, that such a behaviour of guidance, or creativity, changes the distribution of naturally occurring events, and the world of our existence is filled with examples, where an organism, or entity of existence, has been made possible by a "naturally guided" event, such as a piece of volcanic rock, or, by a man-made or consciously created event, such as the manufacture of a tool, or, by a combination of both, where man "steered" a flow of events in such a way, that the results reflect a mixture of the influences of the "natural environment" and man's "deliberate will" or conscious design.

15 Again, I feel a need to elaborate these concepts, which is a sure sign, that I am not happy with the clarity and precision of my thoughts. It is clear, as we have discussed before, that, in essence, every event is "guided" by the circumstances in which it takes place, but, the factors that guide and influence an event in the world of in-organic existence "happen to be there". In the world of the living organisation, events are channeled and guided by complex regulating structures, which are carefully copied or duplicated from generation to generation. These guidance-structures are themselves the result of a long evolutionary development.

16 In the concept of "creation" we visualise the occurrence of an event, where the circumstances have been deliberatly created by a living being. This does not necessarily have to be a conscious human mind, because we see, that, many animals can "create" circumstances favouring the occurrence of a particular, for them favourable event, such as the capture of a prey.

17 The human mind can, indeed, develop a conscious imagery of what it wants, and, the human being can, then, initiate, deliberately and consciously, a series of events that leads to the desired result. The main difference between a conscious human act and the sophisticated hunting behaviour of an intelligent and behavourally flexible animal, lies in the fact, that the human being has developed the ability to form symbolic representations of a large number of awarenesses, and, these symbolic representations can be used to stimulate, or re-stimulate, a number of mental images or awarenesses for someone else or for oneself. Non-conceptualising or non-symbolic animals can not do this. They can not re-stimulate an awareness in themselves, or others, by uttering a representative symbol, and, this means, that an animal can not "work from a mental image" and can not use such a mental image as a model to "create something", unless this image has already been brought to the fore by an analogous experience, such as the sighting of a prey.

18 The extra-ordinary faculty of symbolic recall has become genetically encoded, and, the ability to speak is, therefore, present in every human being. However, this capability needs a long period of stimulation and a large "cultural input", before it becomes a useful and powerful tool in the struggle for survival. The elaboration of the faculty of conscious awareness, the classification of awarenesses into conscious structures of belief and interpretation, as well as the ability to learn or absorb from the cultural pool in which an individual human being grows-up, are the reasons, why man has such an incomparably more extensive reality perception compared to any of the living animals around him, and, this sophisticated, or, at least, potentially sophisticated reality perception, is the basis for man's enormous manipulative and "creative" abilities.

19 This extention of the range of manipulative capabilities comes to the fore, not only, in man's superior capability to design and construct a large number of operative and investigative tools, but, we see, also, that man's awarenesses and reality perceptions span a far greater time-period than any of the animals we know. Man is, not only, able to remember quite far back in time, but, with the help of language-communication and aided by a large variety of record-keeping techniques, man is able to form an imagery of the past extending far beyond the time-span of his own existence, or his own experiences. Man can also "see" events, or form an imagery of possible future developments, extending many years into the future, but, it is the ability to predict, fairly accurately, the outcome of a large number of on-going events, which has given man this marvelous grasp over reality and nature.

20 Certainly, there are many areas, where man is still baffled by the occurrence and outcome of on-going events, and, in particular, the nature and predictability of his own behaviour and motivations has remained a source of confusion and occasional despair. However, there are good reasons to believe, that our grasp over the realities of human nature and motivations is still increasing, and, we have good reasons to believe that man-made sorting and classifying tools are giving us, now, a hand in managing the complexity that comes with attempts to scan the possibilities of a large number of potential, long-term events.

21 The point we want to make, here, once again, is the fact, that all our attempts to understand and master the nature of the world we live in, as well as the world of existence which constitutes our own physiological and psychological existence, are an expression of the need to "guide" events, as well as the need for an ever-expanding ability to create, deliberately and consciously, the "climate" and the circumstances that will promote a series of events, which will, in turn, prolong our ability to survive.

22 As food and energy resources become scarcer, the level of competitive strife and suspicious attitudes increases, and the results of warfare become more devastating with increasing technological mastery. Increasingly, we realise that we are, not only, fragile living organisms ourselves, requiring a constant flow of food, energy, water and fresh air, but, we also realise that our collective impact upon environmental or terrestial circumstances has become so great, that we are rapidly changing these terrestial ecological conditions. This means, that we can not, any longer, take for granted the continued existence of those circumstances that make our life possible. We have discovered that the life-support systems of our planet are fragile and rapidly deteriorating, and, soon, we will need all our concerted efforts to maintain, at least, a bare minimum of healthy living conditions.

23 As our environmental conditions deteriorate, undoubtedly, severely aggravated by a number of deliberate or accidental nuclear explosions and contaminations with dangerous industrial pollutants, we will, finally, realise, that we can not afford, any longer, to channel our energies into satisfying our instinctive drive to seek security in an arms-race. Slowly, man will realise, that his most formidable enemy is not his ideological adversary or his human competitor, but, the common enemy of deteriorating enviromental conditions.

24 However, before such a realisation is so obvious and widespread, that we can influence our leaders, and, that we can make them control their instinctive fears and suspicious attitudes towards each other, conditions will have to deteriorate even further, and, it is certainly possible, that the perceptual abilities of the large-scale social organism of mankind, are still so rudimentary, that the organism of mankind will fail to react appropriately, and will be unable to reverse the effects of its self-inflicted wounds before it is too late.

.......

Chapter 2

Content

We still disagree about the fundamental realities we are confronted with.
Discrepancies between needs and abilities.
Watching, in horror and disbelief, how mankind drifts, helplessly, towards a state of extinction.
What we need to survive.
It is difficult to define, with precision, what constitutes a crisis.
Man has always "bounced back" from adversity in the past.
Learning to see the extent of a devastating crisis, and recognising the erosion of reserves from where recovery has to come.
An increasing dependence on sophisticated technology.
The futility of defending ourselves against perceived enemies with an arsenal of suicidal weapons.
Concepts and tools are the "river-banks" for consciously willed or deliberately created events.
We have become dependent upon a cultural code that is transmitted "externally"; by a process of teaching and education.
The level of control over our individual and collective behaviour-patterns is still inadequate.
A human society behaves like a clumsy life-form with a defective central nervous system.
Another look at the definition of a crisis.
The need to be exposed, frequently, to manageable levels of stress as an "excercise" for our faculties of fore-sight and organisation.
When we can only hope and pray.
In a full-blown crisis-situation, the answers have to become religious, and the behavioural responses will be emotional.
The burden of knowing that we missed the opportunity to avert a crisis, when there was still time to do so.
The nuclear holocaust, interpreted as a fulfilment of Gods Plan.

1 Obviously, what we need, is the ability to develop a world-wide system of management. We have to learn to manage our collective existence in such a way, that we reach, once again, an equilibrium with our natural and social environments. We have to reach the stage, where our collective existence does not create any further burdens upon our terrestial life-support systems, but, before we can expect to realise such an effective, global system of ecological management, we have to understand the psychological and political factors that prevent us from creating an appropriate behavioural response on such a large scale.

2 The primary reason, why we can not react efficiently on a large social scale, is the fact, that we still disagree, too much, about the fundamental realities we are exposed to. As long as we dis-agree about the facts of existence, the observations of environmental deterioration, the nature of psychological mechanisms, the need to explain our behaviour in terms of existential drives and requirements, including the mechanisms of fear and suspicion, or, of indifference and complacency, whenever we happen to be in a position of power and privilege; as long as we do not agree about the reasons for our motivations and behaviour-patterns, and, as long as we are not able to regulate this behaviour better, we will be wasting our time trying to manage the environmental problems on a global scale. All the information and evidence collected by skilled, honest scientists and concerned citizens, will be washed-away by a sea of indifference or disagreement.

3 We can not even begin to create a measure of agreement in our reality perceptions, as long as we do not have a world-wide program of education, where we can teach the fundamental aspects of human existence to all the young people of mankind. As long as our reality perceptions and beliefs remain centered around a variety of religious doctrines, or, around a scornful agnostic attitude, we will fail to break through the barriers of mistrust and inertia.

4 If we want to live beyond the next few dozen generations, we will have to learn to create, first of all, a manageable and widely persuasive reality-perception. Only, then, is it possible to agree, at least, in outlines, about the fundamental facts of life, as well as the most urgent problems we face. Only, then, after a measure of agreement has been established, will it be possible to lower the barriers of suspicion and overcome the resistance of indifference, or, the instinctive drive to cling tenaciously to a privileged position. We have to learn to integrate our psychological and political behaviour with the needs and requirements of mankind on a global scale, and, only, then, do we have a chance to tackle the mounting problems of pollution, contamination and resource exhaustion with a measure of success.

5 Therefore, what may still seem a rather esoteric and irrelevant attempt to sketch a fundamental outline about a generally agreed-upon perception of ourselves, may well turn-out to be the essential foundation upon which a global, more or less harmonious co-existence can be built. Without, at least, a measure of agreement over the fundamental issues of life and existence, we do not seem to have any hope of making worthwhile progress, and, we will be reduced to watching, in horror and disbelief, how the species of mankind drifts, helplessly, and, perhaps, irreversibly, towards a state of extinction.

6 We have emphasised, on previous occasions, the problem, as well as the need, to develop some sort of a global consensus. Here, we want to concentrate on the responses we need in order to survive, and, we want to trace, briefly, the increasing complexity of the required behavioural responses. Just as the life-forms evolved their behaviour-patterns from a simple positive or negative reaction to a highly sophisticated sensory apparatus, together with an equally sophisticated motoric ability, so is it possible to see in the evolution of collective human behaviour, also, a progressive line of complexity and sophistication.

7 While early conscious awarenesses were little more than a more or less literal recall of a highly significant and exciting experience, we have now the ability to analyse a vast territory of data and information. We can look for a variety of recognisable trends or predictable events. We can minimise, to a large extent, serious problems and stresses by correctly anticipating the outcome of on-going events and trends, and, by taking appropriate measures while there is still time to do so. If we wait too long, or, if we fail to interpret the data and warning-signs correctly, or, if we fail to make a decisive response at the appropriate time, we miss the best opportunity for evasive action, and we face a "crisis" situation.

8 It is difficult to define, with precision, what a crisis means, because so much of the designation of a situation as "being a crisis", depends upon our interpretation and reaction to it. Some people will argue, convincingly, that mankind is already in a crisis stuation, because of the numerous nuclear war-heads, the deep-seated suspicions of the most powerful nations, and the rapid increase in terrestial pollution. The exhaustion of valuable resources, the rapidly enlarging gap between the rich and the poor nations, together with an increasing polarisation of the rich and poor within many Capitalist nations, can all be interpreted as urgent, or, even, as reaching crisis proportions.

9 However, others will interpret these same data much more lackadaisically, and, they will point to the fact, that man has always faced problems of one sort or another, throughout history, and, they put their faith in the observation, that man has always "bounced back" and flourished, regardless, how great the suffering and how extensive the devastation.

10 We have to define a crisis, therefore, as a situation that is perceived to be threatening our existence. An individual may panick, if he or she feels the reality to be highly threatening, but, frequently, other people interpret the reality in a markedly different way. If we look at a small group of travelers, who suddenly get into a situation of danger, we see a remarkable congruence in the perception of reality, and, a feeling of panic may be avoided, if quick and efficient communications establish a leadership that can present a sensible plan of action for a way-out of the hazardous situation.

11 Often, the feeling of being threatened is a rather subjective impression, and, if the interpretation of reality by a particular individual differs sharply from a vaguely but generally accepted "norm", the interpretations and reactions of such an individual are classified as "abnormal". They may be abnormal, because of an exaggerated alarm or panic-reaction, but, the behaviour of an indvidual may also become inappropriate, because of a tendency to suppress certain reality perceptions, or, because the behaviour is strongly guided by a belief or interpretation that is not shared by the others. However, within the confines of a particular belief-structure, the behavioural reactions may be logical and sensible, and, we know, that we have to be cautious in outlining the boundaries of normality of behaviour.

12 Because the circumstances of existence differ from one person to the next, and, from region to region, it depends on the extent and severity of an event, whether or not we will react in unison to it. If my home burns-down, it is a tragedy for me and my family, in particular, if there would be loss of life, but, the extent of the tragedy is limited, and, the life of the village or community in which I live, is barely affected. If a flood or an earth-quake devastates a large region, the tragedy affects many more people, and, it has a much more profound effect upon the community, as well as its ability to cope with such a disaster.

13 If we would unleash a nuclear war upon each other, the devastation may be so widespread, and, the problems so enormous, that, even, a concerted effort of the survivors to help themselves, will become futile or impossible. The ability to communicate and mobilise help may be totally overwhelmed by such a major catastrophe, and, the survivors would be essentially helpless. They would be extremely vulnerable to disease and death, because they would have, suddenly, lost all technical know-how, as well as the organisational means to defend themselves against starvation, pollution, contamination, and a fatal deterioration of their health.

14 It is, therefore, important, for all of us, to understand, to what extent we are dependent upon knowledge and technology; upon the ability to cooperate and consult sources of information; upon the ability to analyse, in detail, a complex situation, and safeguard ourselves against contact with lethal contaminants. Only, if we realise, to what extent modern life depends upon an integrated and well-functioning social environment, can we develop an appreciation for the futility of trying to defend ourselves against our perceived enemies and ideological adversaries with a large arsenal of lethal weapons.

15 Let us trace, therefore, the evolution of our concepts and symbols, our insights and knowledge. Let us reflect upon the ability to perceive reality in a complex and masterly manner, which gives us the possibility to design all those sophisticated instruments we need for our continued survival. These instruments may put us on the moon, or, they may let us travel around the planets, but, they may also push us over the edge of extinction into a state of deprivation and poverty, sickness and genetic instability, from which we may not be able to recover.

16 It is not my intention to review any particular form of knowledge, idea or concept, because, on other occasions, we have sketched the emergence of symbolic representation and language communication. We only want to emphasise, here, the fact, that all the conceptual tools of knowledge and belief, which are so important for the guidance of our behavioural reactions, form the "river banks" of the consciously willed events we need for our survival.

17 We know, that the regulatory guidelines for our behaviour have a long cultural history. Just as the organic life-form can not exist, unless it possesses a healthy and viable genetic code, which can regulate all the necessary functions for daily life and reproduction, so has man become dependent upon a code of cultural guidelines, which is transmitted "externally", through a process of teaching and education. If we lose this cultural or educational code, we are lost, but, our insights are still so poorly developed, that we hardly notice the existence, and the necessity, of such a cultural code, and, because of our poor insights, we do not have adequate means to shelter and cultivate such a code, especially, when such a code is severely challenged by rapidly changing ideas and attitudes.

18 Our grasp over the world of inorganic existence is now quite good, and, in spite of our audacious ways of traveling and exploring the physical realities of the world, we are able, at least, technically, to fore-see many of the problems and avoid many disasters. Certainly, we become often complacent, and, we try to cut corners in order to save costs, but technically, we know, how to solve most problems, and, by being cautious, we know, how to avoid many crisis-situations.

19 However, the mastery over our own behaviour, individually as well as collectively, is still poor, and, this is the reason, why people are surprised by their own reactions, or, by the behaviour of people they thought they knew well, and, it is not difficult to see, how many crisis-situations and serious challenges to viability arise as a result of un-understood and un-anticipated tensions and pressures of a psychological nature.

20 For the same reasons, it is often so difficult to guide the behaviour of a large group of people, and, the inadequacy of large-scale political leadership, in particular, in a society where such a leadership is elected by the people, is due to the fact, that, we, as a large society, rarely have the insight, and the common resolve, to recognise and react, appropriately, to a precarious situation. As a social organism, we seem, so often, to behave like a clumsy, placid life-form with a very defective central nervous system. Such a life-form has an amazing lack of abilities, which we, as indviduals, take for granted. We have discussed the idea of a social central nervous system before, and, we know, now, why it has to appear defective and inadequate in comparison with an organic entity, such as the body of our own existence, which has been shaped over a period many millions of years of natural selection.

21 Perhaps, we can define "crisis", or, a crisis-situation, in terms of a stress-load. We know, that we can not live without any stress. Not only, would it be extremely boring, but, we need a frequent exposure to manageable levels of stress in order to excercise a number of faculties, which would "wither-away", if we did not excercise them. However, if stress exceeds an easily managed level, which we enjoy coping with, we enter the stage of serious stress, which requires an ever greater effort to be dealt with efficiently.

22 We will not discuss, here, the various ways we can deal, or try to deal and cope with increasing stress-levels. If the stress-levels are increasingly severe, our ability to cope with them diminishes disastrously. Suffering increases, and, we may easily reach a level of stress that is so high and dangerous, that we are in danger of losing our life. It is obvious, that our options are then severely limited. We do not see any rational way of escaping death. All we can do is hope and pray. Here, a truly strong religious belief will be of great value, as a genuine attitude of trust in God, regardless of the likely outcome of a crisis-situation, may give us strength of character. It may prevent a useless panic-situation, and it may create a level of endurance, which is far beyond the level that can be sustained by rational thought.

23 Indeed, in a true crisis-situation, the answers have to become religious, and the behavioural response will be emotional, because, from a point of view of logic and rationality, we have missed the opportunity to avert the crisis, when there was still time to do so. From a logical point of view, we can only review, sadly, where we lost our last chance to get-out of the predicament we are in, but, such a sad and hopeless outlook is psychologically nearly unbearable. It only serves to show us our stupidity, and it blackens our last moments with a feeling of despair and futility. Very likely, most of us adopt some sort of a religious or emotional response, where we trust God, even, if we have not thought much about Him for most of our lives, or, we hope, with a completely illogical fervor and fanaticism, that we may escape, after all.

24 If man ever pushes himself to an all-out nuclear holocaust, I am convinced, that the miserable remnants of mankind will die-out within a few generations. They will become extinct under the most miserable circumstances we can imagine. However, almost certainly, man's behaviour and attitudes will be fervently religious, and, man will die-out in a belief that may be highly satisfying. Perhaps, the Christians will interpret the events as the promised Second Coming of the Lord, but, almost all religious beliefs will be able to find, somehow, a rationale for what is happening, and, they will interpret the events as a fulfilment of Gods Plan with the world of mankind.

25 The grasp over reality in terms of rational analysis and historic comprehension may be almost nil, especially, when seen from a contemporary point of view, and, it is unlikely, that these miserable remnants of mankind will have any idea, what really happened.

.......

Chapter 3

Content

Fore-sight, and the ability to avoid crises.
Appropriate preventative behaviour means, often, the ability to forego the easier, more attractive behavioural choice.
It takes self-discipline and confidence to take into account long-term objectives.
The painful awareness of the certainty of death; the price of the ability to foresee the outcome of events far into the future.
Recent and fragile flowers of natural evolution.
The larger the social unit, the more primitive its behaviour, but a small grouping does not necessarily behave more intelligently than a large social unit.
The mechanisms of social strength and success are still largely unclear, and beyond our control.
It is always tempting to use force as a solution to our problems.
Legal, diplomatic and economic powers.
A large society is most cohesive, when it has to go to war.
Unfortunately, patriotic slogans and facile promises of bellicose leaders blur the awareness of the consequences of warfare.
Large-scale rational behaviour is one of our most difficult accomplishments.
We still lack the intellectual tools to synthesize an appropriate, rational, large-scale social response.
The members of a large-scale social entity need a foundation of security and essential equality.

1 From a rational point of view, it is clear, that we should try to avoid being caught in a crisis-situation, and, if we remind ourselves, time and again, that we may easily slip into some sort of a dangerous situation, if we are not vigilant, we will have an easier time to bring-up the energy to develop an adequate sense of fore-sight and analysis. We will, then, be able to develop a good "feel" for the events of the immediate future, and, we will be able to muster the necessary alertness and decisiveness to take appropriate corrective measures.

2 The problem we face, is the fact, that, appropriate preventive behaviour means, frequently, that we have to forego the easier, more attractive and inviting behavioural choice, and we have to choose, in stead, a response that is more difficult, but gives us an advantage, and, perhaps, viability, in the long run. It takes self-discipline and confidence to be able to make decisions that take into account long-term objectives, and, because we still disagree amongst ourselves about those long-term trends and objectives, we seldom agree about the need, or the wisdom, of difficult and unattractive behavioural responses that are designed to give us, as well as the future generations, a chance to live under decent, healthy and informed conditions.

3 How to overcome disagreement, and, how to solve the problem of dissenting reality perceptions, is worth a study on its own, but, here, we like to focus on the existing capability of long-range fore-casting and predictability. Even, our close evolutionary relatives amongst the behaviourally flexible species' did not develop truly long-range fore-casting, or, to put it in a less conceptually oriented mode of expression, they did not develop any really long-term sense of anticipation. A memory or sense-impression fades quickly, and, even, our domestic friends, such as a cat or dog, forget, or, appear to forget, their own off-spring, after they have been separated from them for a while.

4 We have discussed, before, that, the lack of symbolic representation denies a non-conceptualising animal the ability to recall, again and again, a particular sense-impression with the help of such a symbol, and, we have seen, that, as a result, the nature of an awareness, or the sharpness of a mental image, is quite different compared to us, human beings, who have the ability to sharpen and recall an image, time and again, with the help of a representative symbol. It is logical, therefore, that the evolution of conceptual or conscious awareness led to an enormous enlargement of the range and time-span of conscious reality perceptions. This is the reason, why man has become painfully aware of the inevitability of death, and, we still struggle with a sense of ambivalence towards the certainty of growing old; is it a privilege, because death has been avoided, so far, or, is it a futile struggle that is becoming more difficult all the time?

5 However, the main point we would like to emphasise, here, is the fact, that the evolution of conscious belief structures, as well as the ability to communicate and re-stimulate a large variety of awarenesses into the focus of our conscious attention, lies at the root of the ability to foresee the outcome of events over a truly prolonged period of time. The ability to grasp reality, recognise familiar features in an on-going event, and predict, with a varying degree of accuracy, the outcome of such an event, is not specifically human, because, highly developed, flexible animals can recognise such features also; at least, they can recognise these features in a subconscious manner, but, no other species has developed these capabilities like the human being.

6 At least, so far as we know, predictability and long-range fore-casting, including the search for viability in sophisticated actions of planning and avoidance, are recent and fragile flowers of natural evolution, which are part and parcel of the evolution of rational behaviour. If we remind ourselves of the concept, that the evolution of a higher plane of social integration brings, inevitably, a more primitive type of behaviour to the fore, then, we are not surprised to see, that, a human social unit is less capable of excercising the faculties of predictability and long-term planning, compared to the single, well-developed human being.

7 We have seen, that the small-scale social organisation is much "older", and has a much longer evolutionary history, compared to the larger, essentially "man-made" societies, where man tries to live as a socially integrated member numbering into the millions. Not surprisingly, therefore, we see, that the small-scale social organisation, such as a family, a clan or tribe, or, a small, special-interest grouping, is able to function, much easier, as a highly complex and alert functional unit, compared to a society, where the members form numerous, small, and diverging sub-groupings. Here, the difficulties of efficient and persuasive leadership seem almost insurmountable.

8 It seems, therefore, justified to say, that, by and large, the larger the social unit, the more primitive its behaviour-patterns, and, as a result, the larger the unit, the less signs it shows for the ability to plan ahead efficiently, or, to predict long-term trends accurately. It should not surprise us, then, to see, that large societies seem to react only in a somewhat dull and undifferentiated manner, stumbling from crisis to crisis, constantly pre-occupied with a large and apparently unending series of urgent problems, which vie for attention and require a quick and decisive response.

9 Certainly, a small social grouping does not necessarily behave in a more intelligent and efficient manner compared to a much larger social entity, and, we see numerous examples around us, where the small-scale social grouping, such as a family, falls-apart as a result of poor leadership, an accumulation of significant errors, or, a lack of insight and foresight. There is often an appalling lack of knowledge about the forces and motivations at work in the relationships between the members. On the other hand, we may, occasionally, see a large society of, perhaps, several hundred thousand people, react and behave with a remarkable degree of vitality and organisation, giving a surprisingly sophisticated behavioural performance in response to a large series of complex challenges and situations.

10 However, there are, often, special reasons and specific circumstances, whenever a large society reacts appropriately and efficiently. Often, a long history of suppression and suffering has enabled such a group to pool its resources, minimise internal conflicts and dissent, and, a large majority of the people are genuinely able, and willing, to place the interests of the community as a whole above their own particular interests. Yet, even so, the flexibility and adequacy of a social response depends upon this fragile and ill-understood feeling of "good-will", and the leadership, nor the people, have an accurate or clear perception of the reasons, why they seem to be doing so well as a social entity.

11 This means, that, even, the members of a successful social entity have no clear-cut concepts about the factors that provide a remarkable level of social strength and unity, and, there is even more confusion about the mechanisms that are necessary to preserve a feeling of good-will and unity, once the major challenges to viability have been overcome. Therefore, the reasons and factors that lie behind the remarkable strength and success of a particular social unit, (regardless, whether it is the occasional larger society that has found the "secret" but subconscious formula for success, or, a family unit that rises above the average and starts to play a dominant role in its social environment), are still, largely, beyond our comprehension, and, they are, therefore, largely beyond our control.

12 We all know, if we are honest with ourselves, that we are tempted, time and again, to reach for the solution of force. If we are vigorous and healthy, we are always tempted to impose a settlement upon those, who disagree with us. We may do this in a variety of ways. If we are a citizen in a civilised country, we will try to make good use of "the law", but, if we are in a "sovereign" position, we use all the powers at our disposal to "fight for our Cause or interests". As citizens, we are still fascinated by a display of power, or clever pressure-tactics, and, we reflect a basic feature of living existence, whenever we are inclined to align ourselves with a powerful force in our environment.

13 Unfortunately, we do not realise, that these attitudes are only a small step away from the use of violence. As soon as our legal, diplomatic or economic powers are exhausted, we are tempted to use force. While we may initially act in a legitimate attitude of "self-defense", as a reaction to an alleged violation of the social code or the interests of the community, it is so easy to slide into an attitude of anger and belligerence, where we can see the elimination or defeat of our opponent as the only real solution to our problems.

14 However, because of our technological abilities and willingness to settle disputes violently, especially, as groups who have become polarised and belligerent towards each other, we see an unaceptable level of death and destruction arise. Just as a severe family-quarrel may, eventually, lead to the injury or death of innocent members, who were only passively drawn into the dispute, so are large segments of a civilian population on either side of a conflict, hurt, wounded, killed or totaly impoverished, as a result of an attempt to settle a dispute by violent means.

15 Ironically, a large society seems to pull itself together in the most advantageous manner, and, it becomes relatively well-organised, as soon as it can group itself around a highly significant existential goal, such as winning a war; but, then, do we not see, here, the most primitive behavioural reactions of a living organism? The solution of violent conflict is so engraved in all of us, that we seem to have few disagreements, or differences of opinion, once we have been swept-up by the belief, that we have to settle a conflict by force.

16 Therefore, we should not be surprised to see, that, an apparently disorganised mass of people, with conflicting interests and contradictory desires, can pull itself together under the threat of imminent warfare. A society that behaved, only recently, as a tension-ridden and disorganised giant, can rapidly be organised into an efficient fighting machine by a leader, who is able to pull-together the seething frustrations of the people, and gives them a glorious goal to fight for. Unfortunately, people, who are so easily goaded into believing the patriotic slogans and facile promises of their bellicose leaders, do not want to think about the consequences of warfare, and, we lack, by and large, the fore-sight and the imagination to visualise the immensity of the destruction we will bring upon ourselves in an all-out conflict with modern weapons.

17 Time and again, we see, that it is much easier to organise a coherent behavioural reponse on an instinctive level than on a plane of rational attitudes. Rational behaviour requires a sophisticated program of complex evaluations, together with a sophisticated analysis of projected and potential developments, before a particular behavioural response can be chosen, and, unfortunately, we still lack the intellectual tools to make such evaluations on a large, collective scale. The practical crux of the matter is the fact, that the road of trying to solve a conflict of interests by means of force and violence, culminating into an all-out armed conflict, is developing increasingly into a condition of mass-suicide, where the lure or illusion of victory is replaced by the grim certainty of death and destruction; for everyone, and not just those, who have been defeated.

18 It is the ability of the rational human being to see this trend, and, to imagine, at least, to some extent, what the ultimate outcome of this trend is going to be, which makes more and more people highly concerned and motivated to try to avoid such a catastrophe. However, before we can hope to find an effective way to reverse this momentum towards a mass-suicide, imposed upon the majority by a small lunatic fringe, we will have to analyse the reasons, why these trends are happening; what evolutionary trends are coming to the fore, here; what motivations are playing a dominant role, and, how we can fortify the conditions that favour rational, concerned, and far-sighted behaviour.

19 Just as a small number of people can develop into a just and harmonious grouping, where every member feels secure and is reasonably content to belong to this social unit, so is it theoretically possible for mankind as a whole to fuse into a just and harmonious social conglomerate with global dimensions, where an overwhelming majority of the members can agree, wholeheartedly, that it is good to belong to the society of mankind.

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Chapter 4

Content

The solution of a political unit with global dimensions.
The rational "will" of an informed world-public is still absent, but it is the only tool that can bring-about a global integration of mankind.
Eventually, we will have to forego the luxury of fighting amongst ourselves.
Unfortunately, environmental conditions will have to get a lot worse, before they can galvanise world-public opinion into a united stance.
The consequences of a lack of adequate fore-sight.
Changing course, before we hit obstacles on the road.
We have to have the ability to verify, afterwards, that our evasive actions were justified.
Developing a "feel" for the momentum of instinctive drives and existential needs.
A rational approach may still be ruthlessly egocentric in outlook.
The need for "rational ethics".
Why we need concepts of fairness, as well as the ability to conduct a thorough analysis.
Emotions and communications; the mechanisms of "emotional synchrony".
The regulatory mechanisms of customs, mores and taboos.
Trust and transparence; the stranger.
Why intellectual capabilities are often abused.
The short-comings of a strong regional or ethnic "flavour" in our attitudes.
The territorial instincts of our leaders.
A colossal arms-race that grows easily beyond rhyme or reason.
There is no need, anymore, for a "citizens's army".

1 It seems so obvious and self-evident, that man's problems will be much easier to solve, after mankind has fused into a global political entity. While we may not be able to advance firm arguments that show, clearly, the impossibility of such an objective, we remain nevertheless sceptical, because we feel, intuitively, that man's tendency to reach for a violent solution in a conflict of interest, is so strong, that it seems highly unlikely that man will ever fuse into a global society. Yet, as we have argued before, there may be strong forces compelling us to do so, in particular, if the environmental conditions deteriorate to the point, that we have to join forces in a continuous struggle to stay alive. Then, we will be forced to forego the luxury of fighting amongst ourselves.

2 Before we will be able to experience such dramatic changes in the social and political outlook of large numbers of people, the environmental conditions on earth will have to get a lot worse than they are today, and, unfortunately, man will continue to pollute the terrestial environment for a while to come, before enough people realise, how urgent it is to fight, on a global scale, the threat to our collective existence.

3 It seems sad to acknowledge, that the situation has to get so bad, before we can muster the necessary consensus to fight the deterioration of our eco-systems, rather than each other. However, if we look at the mechanisms of evolutionary developments, we see, that adaptations and changes for the better only come into existence, if there are compelling reasons.

4 Certainly, one of the essential characteristics of the life-form, in contrast with a piece of inorganic matter, is the fact, that it can "sense" the changes in environmental conditions and the need for a "course correction", long before the physical forces reach their maximum effect and compel, by sheer necessity, a change in direction. The water molecules flowing in a river, jostle each other and bounce, continuously, off the obstacles in the river-bed or the river-banks, as they follow the path of least resistance during the dissipation of their gravitational energy.

5 In contrast, a life-form has the ability to sense an impending change, and move, adapt, or, get out of the way, before the physical forces get a chance to cause a damaging and, perhaps, even, lethal form of contact disrupting the integrity of the life-form. Mechanically, thermally as well as chemically, a life-form is extremely fragile, and, this makes such an anticipatory avoidance-reaction necessary. We see this principle mirrored in the actions of a conscious and alert human being, who pilots an automobile over a complex and winding mountain road, sensing, accurately, where he or she has to turn the steering wheel, reduce speed or apply the brakes, in order to stay on the road.

6 In full agreement with the essential fragility of life, we see, that man has to change course and conduct the travel of the vehicle over the mountain roads in such a way, that he avoids any physical contact with the obstacles and boundary markers that lie beside the road.

7 The ability of an alert human being to foresee things happening, and, to make efficient long-term plans to secure his viability, as well as the survival of his offspring, is merely continuing the principles of adaptation and anticipation, which gave the earlier life-forms their ability to exist in a wide range of changing circumstances. The ability to behave rationally, to avoid a crisis-situation, rather than to let ourselves "bounce off" the walls of a situation of stress or crisis, reflects the same adaptative necessity, but, before we can avoid a stress-situation, we have to have the ability to accurately sense its presence, its direction and magnitude.

8 In other words, we have to have the machinery to analyse and interpret our environmental conditions and situations in such a way, that we can, indeed, avoid a crisis-situation from developing, and, we must be able to verify, afterwards, that our evasive actions were justified; that we would have encountered a crisis-situation, if we would have failed to take the evasive actions we took.

9 ust as we will have to have the ability to "see", before we can drive a car and stay on the road, and, just as we have to have some "feel" for the momentum or inertia of the car, the power of the engine, and the effectiveness of the brakes and other controls, so do we have to have a "feel" for the path along which we have to develop socially. We will have to develop a "feel" for the momentum of our instinctive drives and existential needs. We have to know, what angers and frustrates us, and, we have to know, how easily we escape from the restraining controls of our rational insights. Only, then, can we get a "feeling" for the rewards that come with a prudent action, a far-sighted, well-balanced approach, as well as a thorough, well thought-out analysis of the conditions in which we find ourselves.

10 As individuals, most of us develop some appreciation for the rewards and benefits of rational and controled behaviour. Unless we grow-up in a hot-bed of emotional and passionate behaviour-patterns, where emotions are preferred over the fragile voice of reason, we will develop some idea, how to control our most primitive drives and instinctive impulses in favour of a behaviour-pattern that takes a broader and more complex view of the objectives to be reached.

11 I fully agree with you, if you want to point-out to me, here, that a rational approach may be ruthlessly selfish, and, that a more emotional form of behaviour in a rough, emotional give-and-take between closely relating human beings, may be more "ethical". Such a form of behaviour may be more trustworthy and socially more acceptable than the behaviour of a coolly calculating, but ruthlessly egocentric mind. This is certainly true, and the reason why rational or intellectual behaviour is so often mistrusted by those, who have a less well-developed intellectual capability, is just because cleverness and rationality are, so often, abused in a ruthlessly egocentric manner.

12 Let me make it clear, therefore, that the ability of rational behaviour does not imply any particular orientation of this behaviour. Any ability or capability can be used for egocentric or selfish purposes, or, it can be used in an attitude, or behaviour-pattern, that also takes the needs and concerns of others into account. We only want to emphasise, here, the fact, that, most of us get some benefits from attitudes that can be classified as "rational", and, those of us, who are lucky enough to have received a thorough scientific or academic schooling, will easily acknowledge the remarkable results that can be obtained, as long as we have the patience to learn diligently from our teachers, our own mistakes, as well as our own observations and thoughts.

13 Most of us know, that an impulsive reaction, on the spur of the moment, may lead to a sense of regret, as we realise, later, that our actions were ill-considered, unfair, shallow and open to criticism. Most, or, at least, many of us, learn, eventually, to enjoy the rewards of a skill that has been patiently cultivated, or, the clarity of a concepual image that has been acquired by patient study, or, the calming influence on a situation of conflict and emotional tensions, whenever we are able to explain, patiently and with clarity, where each party has rightful concerns, and, where the attitudes are unjustified or unnecessarily uncompromising, pre-judicial or egocentric.

14 Let us make, therefore, a clear distinction between the ability of rational thought and emotionally neutral behaviour, which allows us to construct tools and coherent belief structures, and, the orientation with which we can use a faculty, capability, tool or weapon. Let us acknowledge, that our motivations are translated into goal-patterns with an existential need or drive as their underlying cause, and, we know, that the emotions we feel, or the behaviour-patterns we are likely to engage in, are behavioural complexes that are strongly influenced by primitive, biologically organised instincts. These instinctive drives are engraved by the genetic code as behavioural instructions, and, they are centered around the three biological poles of our existence; the defense against predators, the need to hunt our food, and the urge to procreate.

15 Emotional behaviour is always a complex form of behaviour that is, in part, rational and influenced by our social environment, as well as our own attempts to control our behaviour, but, at the same time, it is coloured by strong feelings and a tinge of excitement, as it concerns issues or goals that are vitally important for us, and, which have aroused our existential concerns.

16 Communications between animals are, primarily, a form of "emotional synchrony", as we see, when a herd or a flock of birds suddenly acts in unison, when responding to danger, and, we, as members of the human species, have inherited many emotional or primitive behavioural mechanisms, where we also synchronise our feelings and attitudes with each other. For example, in the behaviour of an angry mob, we see, how strongly the emotions can be synchronised and amplified, because in the anonymity of the mob, and, in the security and strength that comes with numbers, we quickly shed our inhibitions, and, we react more primitively and more violently than we would, if we would be reacting to a similar situation, alone.

17 However, even, in the much more refined behaviour-patterns of a small, socially organised grouping, we see, that emotional communications and a synchronisation of feelings remain an important foundation for the more rational, intellectual and conceptual communications. Let us remind ourselves, that, many of the regulatory mechanisms, such as customs, mores and taboos, function at a subconscious level, and, the level of adherence to these "unspoken" guidelines and regulations, determines, whether or not the members can trust each other.

18 This is the reason, why a stranger is never fully accepted into a tightly-knit community, in spite of life-long efforts to become accepted, and, in spite of the fact, that the behaviour of the stranger, is, in many ways, exemplary and more law-abiding, than that of the native population. Different customs, language, habits, etc., make the stranger less transparent for the members of a tightly-knit community, and, logically, one remains somewhat of an outsider, because one's behaviour can not be anticipated with the same degree of accuracy as the behaviour of one of their own members. In addition, the stranger may have more assets; he may be more frugal and independent, and, he is likely to adhere to his own customs. All these factors make it prudent for a stranger to adhere to all the explicit rules and regulations governing the society or community, while avoiding intimate contact with those, who live and think so differently from himself.

19 Here, we want to emphasise the idea, that the forces of social bonding, such as morality and loyalty, are, indeed, factors that operate, primarily, on an intuitive, subconscious and emotional level of communication, and, this is one of the main reasons, why the faculties of the intellect are treated with suspicion and mistrust by less intellectually inclined people. Indeed, clear intellectual capabilites are, so often, misused, perhaps, not so much by those clever minds who develop this capability as a tool of understanding, but, by the many clever opportunists, who seek to use, or abuse, a particular tool for their own gain.

20 The prevailing atmosphere in a stable and relatively prosperous social environment that has numerous contacts with other social entities, remains, therefore, coloured by a mixture of rational, emotional and intuitive guidelines, and, we see, that its elected political leadership, reveals, also, a curious mixture of emotional loyalty and identification with its social environment, as well as a clever intellectuality that lets them grasp their social unit and its problems in a pragmatic but sensitive manner.

21 Yet, at the same time, we see some of the inherent problems of popularly elected leaderships come to the fore, in particular, if we compare prevalent trends and characteristics with the need to fuse into a globally integrated social environment. First of all, the strong regional or "ethnic" flavour that taints the outlook of a successful leader, makes it almost a foregone conclusion, that he will seek solutions that are centered around the well-being of "his society", and, he will consider other nationally elected leaderships as potential rivals and adversaries, just as two rich and powerful families bordering on each other, will invariably see each other as rivals or potential adversaries.

22 Leaders have to be supported by a majority of the people, and, let us not forget that, even, those leaders, who are not strictly elected according to our democratic standards, enjoy, by and large, the support of the silent and well-established majority. These leaders are invariably "territorial" in their behaviour, and, they reflect the interests of the established majority, which has a lot to lose, if attacked or invaded by a rival. At the same time, the establishment has a lot to gain, if its members can dominate or invade their rivals.

23 Established segments of society, together with their leaders, will, invariably, support a massive arms build-up, as well as an expansion of their sphere of influence. Certainly, many of them are genuinely "defensive", and, these people do not covet the territories of their neighbours; at least, not for the moment, and, they are sincere, if they insist, that they do not want a war anymore than anyone else. However, they insist, that the only way to prevent domination or attack is to keep enlarging this arsenal of dooms-day weapons, because they are so dominated by the momentum of fear, that they themselves would only be stopped in a moment of aggressive opportunism, by the nuclear deterrent of their rivals.

24 We see, then, that this colossal arms-race, which is totally beyond reasonable proportions and may well lead to a nuclear holocaust, is caused by an uncontrollable momentum of fear, which has taken-hold of political leaders and their well-established supporters.

25 Ironically, the awakening protest movements and advocates of a nuclear freeze, a uni-lateral nuclear disarmament, or, a total ban on nuclear weapons, are also, primarily, motivated by fear. They fear, rightly, that the nuclear arsenals of the super-powers may come into the hands of irresponsible lunatics, who, in a moment of madness, will unleash the un-imaginable nuclear holocaust.

26 At he same time, the established political leaders, as well as the established elite, fear the average people. They mistrust the ordinary workers and the conscripted soldiers, because they do not trust their loyalty and patriotism any longer. They feel much "safer" with their gigantic dooms-day weapons, because they think, that, a tiny segment of leaders, technocrats and other established "war hawks", will be able to hold an entire super-power at bay, regardless of the question, whether or not their own people want them to use these dooms-day weapons.

.......

Chapter 5

Content

The motivation of "fear".
Peace marchers, and the temptation to use violent tactics.
The need to control our fears, and the tendency to clash in a violent confrontation.
When we are motivated by selfish instincts.
Continuing the road of social integration.
We have to create the brain and central nervous system for a social organisation with global dimensions.
A world-wide contract of justice and essential equality.
The need to maintain a status of justice with vigour and vigilance.
The ever-recurring choice; global socialisation or continuing warfare.
If we can fight on a global scale, we should also be able to communicate on a global scale.
Hammering-out a world-wide social contract of essential equality.
A system of ethical concepts, considering all human beings to be relatives of the family of mankind, regardless of religious or political beliefs.
Boosting our personal or collective security may postpone changes that have to come, but the pressures will increase, relentlessly.
A promise to share the burdens and rewards of life as equitably as we can.
The art of management is based on the skills of recognising opportunities and diagnosing problems.
Responding, nearly automatically, in anticipation of expected results.
Continuing the essential trends of the living organisation.
In every stalemate, a break-through will take place, eventually.
Pressures, not insight, led to the evolution of the larger societies, and pressures, not insight, will continue this process.
Political power-blocks are like gigantic tectonic plates, releasing pent-up tensions from time to time in violent eruptions of strife.

1 Fear motivates our political leaders, as well as the established members of society, to arm themselves to the teeth, and, this results in a never-ending arm's-race with their rivals and adversaries. Fear for loss of life, utter destruction and a bleak future of suffering and despair, motivates many others to demand an end to such a foolish arms-race.

2 Ironically, peace marchers are also prone to use power, rather than persuasion, and, we see, not only, violent clashes with the police and other groups of people who may oppose them, but, there is always the temptation to use sabotage and terrorism in a desperate attempt to accomplish, by force, what can not be accomplished by argument and persuasion.

3 Let us control our fears, as well as our tendencies to clash in a violent confrontation, and, let us examine the reasons, why we tend to persist, so tenaciously, in an attitude that seems increasingly likely to end in utter destruction. If we have a more precise idea about the mechanisms behind our fears, and, what, precisely, we are afraid of, we may be in a better position to verbalise these fears and suspicions, and, we may find a workable alternative to a blind and self-defeating instinct to arm ourselves.

4 If we, as peace-marchers, see, more precisely, how much we are motivated by selfish fears, and, how easily we are goaded into belligerent and violent actions that make a mockery of our professed ideals of peace, we may understand, better, why it is so difficult to convince a majority of the people of the nobility of our Cause. If we learn to analyse our own emotions and motivations better, we may see, more clearly, the common bonds of existential requirements, which unite us all. We may see, more clearly, how we all search for life and security behind acts of belligerence and attitudes of fear.

5 We may be able to overcome the crippling egocentric emotions of fear and suspicion, and, we may be able to see, that a continuation of these primitive attitudes, which, for so long, have, indeed, been a valid and life-giving behavioural mechanism, are likely to push us into a disastrous pact of communal suicide. We may be able to see, that there is a possibility to overcome these crippling fears and suspicions, if we continue the road of social integration. Then, an ever enlarging number of people will be integrated into a functioning and mutually beneficial social unit.

6 We may also see, clearly, why we have to construct, in an act of true anthropomorphic creativity, the conditions, mechanisms and guidelines that provide the brain and the central nervous system, as well as this essential element of viability, to a social organisation of global dimensions. We may be able to agree amongst ourselves, that the processes of natural evolution did not have enough chances, or a sufficient period of time, nor, a stable mode of transmission, to accomplish the structure and organisation of a viable social entity on such a large scale.

7 The answer to our problems will have to come from the realisation, that stable and just social and environmental conditions can only be secured by a world-wide social contract of justice and essential equality. Any attempt to solve the problems regionally; any attempt to hold-on to a condition of privilege, or to ignore the problems of another region or social environment, will, inevitably, lead to severe tensions, a renewed surge of hatred and suspicion, and, ultimately, to violent attempts to "correct" the perceived imbalances and injustices.

8 At the same time, any laxity in the vigilance to maintain and preserve a status-quo of justice and essential equality, will lead to a rapid deterioration and disappearance of this fragile commodity of mutual trust, and, if mutual trust disappears, fears and suspicions resume their destructive work, and we will see a resurgence of the arms-race, as well as all the other evils of a ruthless and all-out competitive strife.

9 Here, again, you may ask me, whether or not it is realistic to expect man to suppress his instincts of competitive strife. Are struggle and competitive strife not so much a part of the essential character of the living organisation, that it is futile to try to eradicate the behaviour of competitive strife? Yes, indeed, it is a basic characteristic of life, and, we see, how stringently a multi-cellular community has to be controled, before it can overcome the tendencies of competitive strife and egocentric proliferation of the cells that make-up a multi-cellular organism.

10 The point is, that the instincts of competitive strife and egocentric advantage-taking can be controled by a rational, explicit, scrupulously honest and carefully constructed pact or social contract, where each member adheres to the guidelines of justice and cooperation, as long as everyone else adheres to these same rules as well. Competitive instincts and energies can, then, be diverted into harmless and potentially beneficial channels, such as games and sports, competitive efforts to create excellence in a large variety of artistic or scientific endeavours, as well as a careful and just system of rewards and honours for a job, done well.

11 It may seem hopeless to, even, think about a global society, and a globally implemented social contract of justice and essential equality, but, if we think, carefully, about the nature of living existence, the evolutionary background of our own existence, as well as the range of behavioural and conceptual capabilities of the human being, we come to the conclusion, that, time and again, we are faced with the choice to accept, either, the consequences of an all-out conflict, fought on a global scale, or, a serious and persistent attempt to extend the process of social integration world-wide.

12 If we can fight on a global scale, it should not be too difficult to communicate on a global scale, and hammer-out, eventually, a world-wide social contract. However, before we can be successful, we have to agree amongst ourselves on the basic facts of life, including the mechanisms and functions of human existence, because, only, if we can agree amongst ourselves about the essential nature and requirements of human existence, only, then, do we stand a chance to come to a globally viable social contract of essential equality, and, to curb this pernicious momentum of fear and suspicion.

13 Once we have firmly rooted ourselves in a system of ethical concepts that truly considers all mankind to be brothers and sisters of each others, (and not only those who believe in the same religious or social dogmas), then, we can freely use our abilities of rational thought, of analysis and conceptual synthesis, of predictabiliy and grasp, and, believe me, we will need all our technical, scientific and social skills to retain our viability in a world that has been polluted, damaged, exhausted and contaminated to, and, perhaps, beyond the point of grave danger and irreparable damage.

14 Just as a small group of travelers, in essence strangers to each other when the journey began, will have to form an intelligent social unit of cooperation, analysis and extensive but careful planning, in order to overcome a dangerous situation after their craft has become disabled, so will mankind have to adopt similar attitudes of cooperation and intelligent planning, if it is to survive the dangers of a rapidly deteriorating and fragile terrestial space-craft, with faltering life-support systems.

15 Indeed, it will become increasingly obvious to us, in particular, to the following generations, that our present attitudes and instinctive drives to seek security behind a wall of armaments, and a deaf ear towards the claims and problems of others, is an avenue that must lead to an evolutionary dead-end. Any attempt to solve our problems by boosting our particular security, may postpone the changes that have to come, and, these attitudes and practices may, for a while, hold at bay the forces of justice and essential equality, but, in the long run, these attitudes will lead to moral bankruptcy and defeat.

16 We may as well acknowledge, now, that the time has passed, where we could eliminate or eradicate our adversaries and enemies for good, and, we may as well acknowledge, that we can only survive, if we learn to see and accomodate each other as human beings, with similar, legitimate, and, often, conflicting or competing interests, and, we may as well acknowledge, that there is no other rational alternative than a spirit of cooperation, based on a promise to share the burdens and the rewards of life as equitably as we can.

17 We have made these pleas for a global contract of justice, equality and rational behaviour before, and, we will not dwell upon them, here, because we want to show, that there is an existing evolutionary trend in human behaviour, leading from a dull, slow, inappropriate and obtuse reaction to a crisis-situation, to a highly differentiated, intelligent and anticipatory response, where the crisis, or many different crises, are avoided, just as an intelligent and alert driver can steer his automobile swiftly and effortlessly through a large variety of potentially disastrous and lethal situations, which he would encounter, if he allowed his vehicle to leave the road of common-sense and rational behaviour.

18 Man still reacts slowly, especially, as a large-scale social organism, and, we still live in an era, where insight and recognition of the need for change, is dull and vague. A large social organism still reacts, primarily, to severe pressures, either from within or from the outside, and, it behaves much like an inert, in-organic piece of matter that has to be jostled and bounced-off the boundary walls of its path of existence, before it moves and changes direction in anticipation of on-coming obstacles. Eventually, however, society can and will react as an intelligent and sensitive individual, who sees the need for a "course correction ", and, who initiates the necessary changes, long before the pressures to do so reach crisis proportions.

19 The art of management lies in the development of the skills of recognition and diagnosis, because these skills let us grasp the situation in a coherent and manageable framework of causes and their effects. Whenever we have a clear grasp of the existing force-fields, as well as the nature of the on-going events, few of the happenings and results come as a surprise. If we are capable of developing such a tight grasp over the reality we are in, we will see, that our ability to foresee the outcome of on-going or just beginning events and trends, has increased remarkably, and then, we will respond nearly automatically in anticipation of the expected results.

20 It is so obvious, that this faculty represents a continuation of the essential characteristics of the living organisation, where the fragility and lability of the complex biochemical relationships can only be safeguarded from destruction by a flexible approach to the existing circumstances. Later, in the animal species', this ability to evade damaging pressures has been elaborated with the help of a variety of sensory mechanisms and special sense-organs, which are connected by a central nervous system in order to coordinate the sense-data and organise an integrated behavioural response.

21 Again, later, the emergence of the behaviourally flexible species' emphasised the ability to modify a behavioural response on the basis of past experiences and a "learned" input, including the imitation of successful parental behaviour-patterns. With man, another giant step forward took place on the same road of behavioural flexibility, when experiences became re-callable and communicable with the help of symbolic representations. This led to an enormous expansion of the "grasp" over reality, but, this grasp requires a complex, learned and conscious structure of beliefs, which ordens and classifies the experiences and awarenesses of a small group of human beings.

22 From an organism that reacts to the circumstances of the moment, man has become the organism that shapes and influences, actively, many of these circumstances in order to make them more to his liking. This unity between social organisation, communications, beliefs and attitudes, the perception of reality, together with the active efforts to create a reality that suits the community of living organisms, reaches a peak in the small, relatively stable and tightly-knit community of human beings with an efficient natural leadership.

23 The evolutionary success of the human species led to a great proliferation in numbers, and, the level of competitive srife between the small, natural, social units, increased dramatically, until a certain equilibrium evolved between man's success and the pressures of existence. Competitive strife kept the population of human beings down, at least, to some extent, but, man spread, nevertheless, over the habitable areas of the entire earth. Climatic fluctuations spurred technical innovations, as communities tried to cope with adverse conditions, such as a flood or a drought, cold winters or a scarcity of game.

24 Just as in any stalemate, eventually, another break-through occurs. Break-throughs at a uni-cellular level included the development of a large variety of specialised forms and the evolution of the multi-cellular colony, which gave rise to the multi-cellular organism, even, if we do not have a precise image, how this development took place. Small communities of people started to form "alliances" against other "colonies" or communities, and, eventually, the larger society emerged, together with profound changes in the way of life for all the participating members. We have traced, before, the similarities, as well as the differences, between the various levels of social integration achieved by individual cells, multi-cellular organisms and socially integrated human beings.

25 Nomadic existence was largely abandoned, probably, because of the need to defend, continuously, a valuable piece of land against envious competitors, and, we have sketched, before, the profound changes that took place in the leadership, as well as the regulating bodies and codes of society. These changes had to take place, before suspicious, hostile and alien groupings could be brought together in a semblance of harmony. However, as we are well aware, the larger social unit is only partially the result of innovations in the leadership and its governing bodies, because this unity was always enforced, at least, to some extent, by brute force, as well as the inability to break-away from an existing social organisation.

26 Pressures, not insight, led to the evolution of the larger societies, and, pressures, not insight, will continue this process, as the larger societies become more and more intertwined. Already, we see, that, nations and societies, which considered themselves proudly independent a few generations ago, have aligned themselves in "colonies", or "power-blocks", and, we see, that the world is now fragmented into three or four large blocks of nations that feel the need to form an alliance and defend their common interests against the pressures exerted by other power-blocks.

27 Like the gigantic tectonic plates of the earth's crust, these power-blocks exert a continuous friction along each other's boundaries, and, these frictions and tensions fuel our suspicions, as well as the arms-race, but, they also keep these power-blocks more or less intact, as the tensions and conflicts enforce the awareness that we need these alliances.

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Chapter 6

Content

A new evolutionary stalemate is developing.
The polarisation between the rich and poor.
A few, tragic and costly nuclear accidents are likely to happen.
The nuclear stalemate will prevent a military conquest of the world by anyone particular power-block.
The spread of ideas and concepts can not be prevented.
The growth of public awareness on a global scale will slowly improve the quality of political leadership.
A still rising importance of the cultural code.
An improved intellectual grasp over the mechanisms of motivations and emotions.
Learning from analogies.
Learning how to evaluate the behaviour of an individual and his social surroundings.
A brief review of the structure of the human personality.
A center of emotional near-neutrality.
Constructing a vector-diagram of forces that influence an individual.
We need a useful profile of human behaviour, and a generally acceptable standard of health and normality.
A diagram of social forces that modify and restrain, and, sometimes, actively encourage a specific response.
Monitoring individual and collective developments.
Fluctuating levels of sensitivity to contradictory impulses and stressful situations.
Assigning, consciously, a measure of significance to contradictory stimuli requires a careful analysis.
The sliding scale between egocentric concerns and a concern for the interests of other people.
The ability to sketch a comprehensive view of individual and collective behaviour-patterns.

1 A new evolutionary stalemate is developing. The frictions and tensions, conflicts and struggles between and within nations, siphon-off enormous quantities of energy. Our environment is deteriorating, and the plight of the starving and the poor is getting worse. This will, eventually, lead to acts of rebellion and sabotage, where determined and reckless people will get hold of some of the nuclear weapons, which the super-powers are stock-piling in such large quantities. This polarisation between the rich and the poor will lead to massive protests from ordinary peoples everywhere, because they will have lost faith in their leaders, and, they are afraid, that, they, too, will slip into poverty and destitution. Besides, more and more people will become genuinely afraid, that a small but powerful ruling elite will unleash a nuclear holocaust.

2 Most likely, a few, tragic and costly nuclear accidents will, indeed, happen. We could see, either, true accidents, or a limited nuclear war, carried-out by a lunatic fringe, and, these events will serve as a powerful reminder to the surviving members of mankind, that a better solution to the many problems and tensions, has to be found. It may be, that, one of the power-blocks will indeed see a chance to dominate the others, without causing a nuclear holocaust, but, this is unlikely. It seems more logical, that the nuclear stalemate will, indeed, prevent a military conquest of the world by anyone particular power-block, and, it may then be possible, that an ideological struggle between competing reality perceptions and social designs, will determine the future course of man's evolution.

3 Nuclear warheads are capable of keeping armies out of each other territories, but, the spread of ideas can not be prevented, and, it is my hope and wish, that, eventually, a majority of the peoples all over the world, those who do all the hard work and upon whom the well-being of our planet depends, will be educated and informed enough to engage in a world-wide debate about the best way to overcome the deadlock between the various power-blocks. Then, it will be possible for competent and truly representative leaderships to emerge, which are capable of controling their fears and suspicions; and, then, it may be possible to halt the down-hill slide in the quality of human life, while justice will be done and dignity will be given to those, who still live in unimaginable conditions of poverty and deprivation.

4 In evolutionary terms, this development would mean, that the large societies of today will have been able to develop a more intelligent mode of behaviour. The dull force-fields of pressures and crisis-situations will have been replaced with the mechanisms of intelligent analysis, the careful construction of favourable conditions, necessary to create and maintain a social contract of justice and equality. Then, there will be an intelligent anticipation of problems and stresses, together with appropriate avoidance-reactions, before these stresses reach crisis proportions.

5 If such a beneficial evolutionary trend and development would, indeed, have been able to establish itself, it would also mean, that the cultural code has again increased in importance, and, perhaps, the most interesting feature of this entire trend would be a further increase in the "conscious conceptualisation" of the cultural code.

6 As we have seen, the cultural code has a conscious layer, such as explicit rules and beliefs, but, it has also numerous intuitive and vaguely perceived, emotional regulators, such as customs, mores, as well as a variety of attitudes, such as those of fear and suspicion or good-will and trust. These sub-conscious, emotional and poorly conceptualised regulating functions must, by definition, escape, largely, the mechanisms of conscious control, but, we have seen, that, progress towards a secure and viable global society must mean, that we improve our conscious grip over the mechanisms of motivations and emotions.

7 We have also seen, that we need to formulate, more clearly, what sort of conditions of justice and equality will be acceptable to a large majority of mankind. Unless we create such universally acceptable conditions, it will not be possible to bring a harmonious and peaceful global society into existence. Unless we create, and maintain, a set of globally acceptable conditions of justice and equality, it will not be possible to avoid violent conflicts, as well as a resurgence of the mechanisms of environmental deterioration.

8 We have sketched, before, in overall outlines, the evolution of a viable society with global dimensions, capable of coping with, and avoiding, numerous stresses and potentially lethal challenges to the viability of mankind. Let us continue with a somewhat more pragmatic discussion of a number of psychological trends, or developments in human behaviour, which may be considered a useful starting-point to initiate this global ideological debate, and, which may be helpful to initiate the processes of change that will, eventually, break-through the stalemate of fears and suspicions.

9 When searching for practical ways to bring-about useful changes, we should look, again and again, at the small society or social grouping, and, we should analyse the trends and developments that make these small societies viable and successful. We have to understand the mechanisms that make them flourish, but, we also have to know, what may go wrong, and, why a social grouping may stagnate and die. It seems reasonable to assume, that the same principles, be it on a much larger and more complex scale, determine the success and failure of the larger societies, and, it seems reasonable to believe that our insights will be applicable to the global society as well.

10 There are many ways we can look at the behaviour of a human being, or a small social entity, and, because we do not agree, as yet, how we function, and, how a social environment functions, or ought to function, we disagree about nearly everything we see. For this reason, it is still very difficult to devise a method of evaluating behaviour-patterns, and, we certainly have to begin our quest for long-term social harmony and human viability, by building, carefully and patiently, an agreed-upon body of psychological insights and sociological knowledge. I am going to outline, here, a variety of ways we can look at an individual and his social environment, and these ideas reflect, necessarily, my particular way of looking at reality.

11 Hopefully, these insights will, also, become your way of looking at reality, but, I realise, that the slow evolution of firm knowledge and agreement will take a long time, and, it may well be, that my ideas will, even, under the best of circumstances, only function as a starting-point. I assume, that you have some idea, how I think about these matters, because it becomes impractical to repeat all these ideas in detail, every time there is a need to discuss them.

12 We have advanced the concept, that our instinctive behaviour is organised around three existential poles; the aggressive, defensive and sexual poles of our personality, which all give rise to a characteristic form of behaviour. We can, therefore, begin to describe behaviour according to its "closeness" to a particular existential or instinctive pole.

13 In extreme situations, an individual will be in an aggressive rage with indiscriminate killing or destructive behaviour, or, he will be in a panic, or, perhaps, in a state of sexual ecstasy. In all three conditions, we see strongly stereotyped and instinctive behaviour-patterns, but, most of the time, people fluctuate, much more gently, "in the middle" of their existential concerns, where they are, to some extent, influenced by their existential poles or concerns, but, their behaviour is coloured, strongly, by the input of a large variety of stimuli from the contemporary environment, as well as by memory-traces and experiences that have been accumulated during a life-time. People may also exist in a state of "emotional near neutrality", and, they fluctuate, or "drift", then, around a "neutral" center, where no significant emotions or motivations are at work; at least, no significant emotions and motivations are visible.

14 If we can agree about the basic soundness, and usefulness, of such a classification of human behaviour, we may be able to devise an agreed-upon scale, where we monitor, or record, behaviour on a sliding scale between the three existential poles. We see, then, how an individual may be drawn towards one of the existential or instinctive poles, or, an individual may be gently fluctuating around a zone of emotional near neutrality. We can, then, also record the existentially significant stimuli, which drive an individual towards one of these existential poles, and, we can plot the factors and influences that act as a brake on an existentially "aroused" response. For example, we see many regulatory functions operate in the social environment of an individual, and, these factors tend to mitigate the extent of emotional or instinctive arousal.

15 We can, therefore, construct a vector-diagram of force-fields that exert an influence, and, we can get a good insight into the reasons, why an individual reacts the way he or she does. These modifying behavioural factors arise, not only, from clearly visible social guidelines, but, they reflect the personality and beliefs of the individual as well. The sensitivity of an individual to learned and accepted ethical considerations and moral guidelines determines, to a large extent, the level of social integration of an individual, and, the resulting behaviour-patterns determine the "usefulness" of such an individual for his or her social environment. If we are able to draw a useful profile of human behaviour, we can also determine, much more precisely than we can now, what the standards of health and normality are; for individual, as well as for collective forms of existence.

16 We can construct a diagram of the social forces that modify and restrain, but, also, the factors that, sometimes, actively encourage a particular response. These are the laws, customs, notions and generally shared attitudes, which are encouraged by the communal guidelines. In addition, we can construct a diagram of forces that originate indirectly from the social environment, but, which act as "internal restraints" and guidelines, according to what an individual believes to be right and wrong, desirable or undesirable, etc.

17 It will not be easy to construct such profiles, because the outline of these parameters, and, in particular, the quantitation of the forces at work, will only come, after we have been able to agree amongst ourselves about the mechanisms that play a role. As a corollary of this basic evaluation, we can determine a number of other variables. We can plot, for example, the strength of a stimulus, if we have some means of comparing it with a standard, and we can evaluate how this stimulus is received and processed.

18 In other words, we can compare an individual's response against a certain norm, and, if there is a significant deviation from the norm, we have to ask ourselves, why this is happening. Is there a deviation in the subjective experience of the strength and significance of a particular stimulus, or, is there an abnormality in the way the direct or indirect modifying forces are acting? Is the sensitivity of the individual to these forces altered for one reason or another? For example, an individual may be much less susceptible than usual to these modifying influences, or, the individual may be abnormally sensitive, and, all these variations require an analysis of the reasons, why such changes or variations from a normal standard are taking place.

19 If an individual grows-up in an environment where the guidelines of society are poorly respected, or, even, looked-upon with suspicon, it is logical, that the response of an individual to a particular set of stimuli will be quite different from the norm. If an individual is unduly afraid or impressed by certain guidelines, either those of the social environment, or, those of the family in which a youngster grew-up, we see, again, curious deviations from the norm.

20 The assignment of significance to stimuli requires a careful analysis, because the quality of "significance" depends, to a large extent, on the "program instructions", which we have received from our immediate social environment, including the parental home, and, we may safely say, that no two people will interpret or react exactly the same to a particular set of circumstances.

21 If we consider all the variables and different sources of input that may influence an individual's behaviour, we will be able to draw-up a rather typical "personality profile". Such a profile may concentrate on behavioural reactions, but, we can also refine the predictability of human behaviour, if we pay close attention to attitudes, opinions, prejudices, fears and ambitions.

22 There is, however, another important diagram we can construct about the behaviour of each individual, but, let me emphasise, once again, that it will not be easy to design clear and reliable parameters with which to measure the performance of a particular personality. I am thinking, here, about the sliding scale between a behaviour of egocentric concerns, and, a behaviour that takes into account the concerns and needs of other people. We all have a strong and healthy instinct to look after our own interests, but, at the same time, we have been given a heritage of socially integrated and acceptable behaviour-patterns. We have outlined the anlage of ethical behaviour before, and, we have traced it to the requirements of parental care and concern for their vulnerable offspring.

23 If we draw a diagram that focusses upon the content of ethical behaviour, and, if we combine such a diagram with the other profiles we have sketched, we get a fairly complete view of the human personality, and we will be able to draw important conclusions from them in our search for a set of social guidelines, which will make social integration on a global scale, not only, possible, but also, more likely.

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Chapter 7

Content

The construction of an "ethical awareness profile".
Distinguishing between ethical and quasi-ethical behaviour-patterns.
A combination of (self-)restraint and voluntary compliance with ethical guidelines.
Enlarging the ability to recognise problems and opportunities.
Developing an individualised pattern of recognition.
Different parameters for scoring ethical behaviour; fear and conviction.
A personality profile based on the common life-cycle of a living organism.
The element of "vitality".
An outline of long-term plans and ambitions.
The underlying "ground-tone" of a personality.
A profile of skills, talents, training and education.
The personal history.
We have to have reliable information, if we want to understand what is happening within or between us.
The profile of a social entity; a definition.
Assigning a general mood, or atmosphere, to social relationships.
Localised "hot spots", or areas of friction.
We can deal with local frictions and occasional incidences of injustice, if the overall mood and status-quo is healthy or sound.
A profile of attitudes and relationships, obtained with accurate monitoring techniques.
Discovering the reasons why relationships have a tendency to sour.
Scrutinising, continuously, the requirements of good leadership.
A system for evaluating and comparing the performance of all social functions.
Building-up a profile of relationships between social units.

1 The situation is more complex than we have sketched in the previous chapter. There are, indeed, a large number of mechanisms at work in the behaviour of a human being. If we look at the hierarchical behaviour of flexible, but socially integrated animals, we see, that this behaviour appears to have some "ethical features", but, there is, of course, no conscious awareness of the need to contribute to the social unit, and, the behaviour-patterns are, therefore, entirely shaped by the need to yield to a dominant member, or, to take care of vulnerable offspring. In the human being, we also see, that ethical behaviour is, on many occasions, more the result of pressure or coercion, than a genuine recognition of the need to take the existential concerns of others into account.

2 Let us construct, therefore, something like an "ethical awareness profile", where we try to determine, to what extent socially acceptable behaviour is due to coercion and fear, on the one hand, and, a measure of conscious contribution, on the other. Does an individual refrain from stealing, breaking the law or harming someone else, because he or she is afraid for the consequences, or, is the behaviour of concern and conformity with the codes of society, the result of a conscious and genuine agreement with the need and the rightfulness of such a code of ethics?

3 Of course, such a distinction is difficult to measure, but, it is obviously important to make such a distinction. If ethical or "quasi-ethical" behaviour is, merely, the result of restraints, we can expect an immediate deterioration to more primitive, more egocentric and lawless behaviour-patterns, if these restraints would fall-away, or lose their power. If ethical behaviour is motivated by a genuine recognition of the fact, that our neighbours and other fellow citizens have the same needs, aspirations and ambitions as ourselves, we see a much more viable and constructive attitude, which may, if the circumstances are ripe, make a contribution to the conditions of justice and essential equality.

4 Certainly, in practice, we will find always a combination of the restraining factors, where behaviour is guided by fear for punishment, and a measure of active understanding, where the individual perceives, at least, vaguely, the reasons, why social health and stability require an active input of just behaviour, as well as a recognition of the fact, that other people like and dislike the same conditions and circumstances as ourselves; that others want to enjoy roughly the same privileges and pleasures we enjoy.

5 This act of recognition depends, largely, on the level of training and education an individual has received, and, it is logical, that, children from socially well-integrated and privileged parents will show a much greater degree of insight into the conventional wisdoms of society, compared to those children, who grow-up in an anti-social climate, where people live precariously, and without much understanding, at the fringes of society.

6 As people grow older, there will be a mixture of traditionally accepted guidelines, and a more personal or "individualised" recognition of the need for social justice. Here, again, it will be difficult to score people's beliefs and ethical concerns. We can score the measure of conformity between professed standards of behaviour, and the actual performance of an individual or social grouping. We can distinguish between the passive acceptance of current social guidelines, and the level of active social concern an individual or group displays, and, we can also distinguish in the factor of "fear for punishment", between the fear for punishment from society, or, from God.

7 We have sketched, briefly, four different parameters for scoring ethical behaviour, where the two main components that motivate ethical behaviour, fear and conviction, are sub-divided into a fear for social and religious retribution, as well as a conviction that is based on conventional wisdom, or an original and personal conviction about the need to be socially concerned and contribute to the well-being of the social environment.

8 There is another vitally important profile of the human personality, which we should consider, here, briefly, because it is better known, and more widely agreed-upon. This is the profile of the various stages in the life-cycle of individual human existence; from childhood and adolescence, to maturity, slow decline, old-age and death. As the central parameter in drawing this profile, we should consider the strength of the "elan-vital". This elan-vital is a measure of the vitality that shapes our lives at every stage of our life-cycle, as well as at every moment of our existence. During embryological growth and early infancy, the energies of the elan-vital are, primarily, translated into cellular proliferation and growth. Then, during childhood, we see a phase of rapid developments, with the unfolding of many capabilities.

9 The abundance of the elan-vital shows through in the way children are physically and mentally active. The rate of overall learning is, probably, never greater than during this phase. Later in childhood, and during adolescence, learning requires a greater conscious effort. Our horizons are expanding rapidly, we have to learn to take our place in society, and our mental and bodily maturation processes open the world of sexuality. During late adolescence and early maturity, we reach the peak of our physical strength, but, our mental capabilities continue to grow, at least, in those who are well educated. When we reach the stage of senility, our memory starts to fade, and our grasp over reality begins to decline.

10 We have described these biological and physiological phases before, and, we have also defined, and outlined, the concept of the elan-vital. Here, we would like to consider another parameter of human behaviour. For the sake of a complete personality profile, it is important to sketch an outline of an individual's long-term plans and ambitions, because these determine, frequently, an underlying "ground-tone" of the personality. If the ambitions are highly idealistic and difficult to reach, a large gap will remain between goals and accomplishments, and, this may, eventually, if not corrected and scaled-down to more realistic levels, give rise to a mood of chronic frustration and anger, which may, in turn, influence a wide range of behaviour-patterns.

11 If an individual has more realistic ambitions, he or she experiences, much more frequently, the satisfaction of success and approval, and, such people are more likely to turn into well-adjusted, well-integrated, relatively happy and somewhat placid personalities. Since this underlying ground-tone is important for society, as well as the individual, a careful portrait of the human personality should give us a good insight into the sort of ground-tone a personality radiates, and, we should have a reasonably good idea, why, and how, this particular ground-tone came-about.

12 This, together with a profile of skills, aptitudes, level of formal training and education, as well as a factual personal history, should give us, at least, a workable framework about a particular personality. We will not repeat, here, the many arguments about privacy and abuse of information, which are invariably brought to the fore by those, who are, rightfully, concerned by the implications that lie behind the construction and recording of such extensive and detailed personality profiles.

13 Let us, here, only emphasise, again, the basic fact, that we have to have reliable information, if we want to understand, what is happening inside us, between us, and within our societies. Certainly, if we want to manage our human resources well, and, if we ever want to dream, seriously, about constructing a large, global and viable, peaceful and just society, we have to have information. We have to have information we can use to discuss problems, exchange points of view, or use in the conscious design of necessary changes and adaptations of the social environment we live in. If we ever dreamt about manipulating our destiny with more skill and surefootedness, then, we should begin by acknowledging the need for reliable and agreed-upon data.

14 Let us now turn our attention to constructing a profile of the many socially integrated entities we can be aware of or belong to, because, if it was difficult to agree upon the ways we should look at the human individual, we will find it even more difficult to agree upon the way to look at, classify and rate a variety of functions and characteristics of a specific social environment or social entity. First of all; what do we mean by "society"? We see social groupings ranging from a few people in a family-unit, to a few hundred people in a special-interest or sport's group. There are many thousands of people who belong to a professional organisation, a union, or a political Party, and there are many millions of people grouped-together, if we look at the social unit that is defined by an overall, political leadership and a bureaucratic structure, existing more or less independently as a unit in the family of nations.

15 Let us look, here, only at the family-unit and the larger political entity, because we can only outline a variety of parameters to measure social performance, if we keep a limited number of social models in mind. We can see three broad categories of events, when we look at a social unit. We see, first of all, the level of happenings and events that is characterised by the numerous relationships between the members that make-up the social unit. In addition to this category of "social events", we may add the related categories of the relationships between the members and their leadership, as well as the relationships between social entities, in particular, between large political entities.

16 It is often possible to assign a general mood or atmosphere to these relationships. For example, if the inter-actions are smooth, we find, that a majority of the members will feel satisfied with the relationships they have with each other. Then, there is a general atmosphere of trust and optimism. People tend to be open and enthousiastic. They trust each other and they believe each other, as well as their leadership. People are inclined to cooperate and pull-together, and, as a result, the functions and tasks are carried-out smoothly and efficiently.

17 Certainly, this does not mean, that there are no frictions, but, problems tend to be dealt with efficiently. Wrong-goings or alleged wrong-doings are competently investigated and judged, and, appropriate punishment or corrective measures are administered decisively. The whole atmosphere is one of confidence, but, this does not mean, that there are no complaints against "the system", or, about specific problems and short-comings of the many social functions and bureaucratic institutions. However, these complaints are in the minority, and, they are looked at, quickly and competently, and, these grievances are not influencing the general mood of optimism and well-being. The overall level of gripes and frustrations is low, because most members feel, that they are being treated fairly and justly, and, that they are given an equal opportunity to develop their talents and ambitions.

18 From an overall, positive outlook, we can see all sorts of gradations to a rather bleak social situation, where a large majority is depressed, suspicious, anxious, unwilling to talk or state, openly, their opinions. There is a great deal of hostility and resentment towards each other. People feel that there is a lack of justice and fair treatment, and, that there is a great deal of nepotism going-on. People are searching for security by forming special-interest groupings or local vigilante organisations.

19 Eventually, after we have reached some sort of agreement amongst ourselves about the need to monitor these parameters, it should be possible to construct a detailed quantitative profile of the social environment, (regardless of the size of the social entity we may be looking at), by polling an accurate sample of the population. Then, we will have a good view of the prevailing moods and attitudes in society, and, without this basic knowledge, it will be impossible to manage the many problems of a social environment. In short; we should be able to get a profile of the attitudes and inter-personal relationships by an accurate polling or monitoring technique, which includes a carefully crafted interview with the people of the sample, in order to avoid "leading questions" and a poll-induced bias of the results.

20 The profile of inter-personal relationships should include, of course, the relations between the people and the various branches of government. Certainly, all these mechanisms are interwined, and, we will discover, that inter-personal relationships sour, primarily, because of a deterioration in the quality of communication and leadership, including the quality of bureaucratic institutions and governmental functions.

21 It is important, that we scrutinise, continuously, what the pre-requisites of fair and competent leadership are. We have discussed these aspects before, and we will not repeat them, here. Let us only say, that an interview, or questionnair, should include a survey of people's opinions about the way they perceive their leadership to be functioning. Is their leadership legitimate? Do the leaders rightfully occupy their position of authority? How should a leadership position be defined? Should the people have the choice to elect their leaders? How can we make, sure that the people choose wisely? How can we avoid threats or acts of intimidation, or acts of deception and facile promises, which cloud, so often the judgements and behavioural choices of the people?

22 In short, we see, that we can draw-up a profile of the relationships between the leadership and its electorate. This profile will reflect, not only, the broad philosophical foundation upon which the society has been structured, but, it can also reveal how the leadership, together with its executive, bureaucratic and military functions, is perceived by the population as whole. We can then draw-up some sort of a scoring system, where the performance of the leadership is rated according to the degree of persuasion and force they apply in their social surroundings.

23 Lastly, there is one other broad category in which we can rate the behaviour of a society and its leadership. This is the relationships between the society as a whole, and neighbouring societies, or, societies that have some sort of contact, or conflict of interest, with the social environment we are trying to rate. Here, again, we see a parallel with the rating of individual behaviour. The category of inter-personal relationships within a social unit can be compared with the relationships between the various parts of the body, or the variety of drives and impulses that form, together, the unity of our personality.

24 The relationships between the members and their leadership, including the channels of authority, is comparable to the relationships of the various components of our body with the central nervous system, as well as the overall, unifying action of our conscious will. The third category is reflected, of course, in the way we relate to other people, and, this profile reflects the relationships of the society as a whole with the social groupings that form together "the society of mankind".

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Chapter 8

Content

It is useful to keep the similarities between a social unit and an individual in mind.
The natural leadership qualities of the head of a family-unit.
Trying to emulate the qualities of good family-leaders for the leadership of large social entities.
There is no effective supra-national organisation, as yet.
The draw-back of totally autonomous or independent behaviour.
A look at the contemporary structure of the United Nations.
World-public opinion will have to compel national or regional political leaderships to transfer a significant amount of power and autonomy to a supra-national body.
The establishment of an effective world-parliament.
An address to the peoples of the world.
Why our leaders fail us.
A necessary shift in attitude.
We have to believe in the need for global integration, before we can support it.
Let us think about the consequences of continuing "the old way".
Sowing the seeds of injustice, when we are "on top of the world".
Dealing with a harvest of hatred and revenge.
The temptation to defend a privileged position at all costs.
The consequences are there, for all of us to see.
We have to learn to manage the forces of reality, as they are presenting themselves to us.
It is sobering to realise, how corruptible a creature we are.
We all are given a chance to participate in this glorious process of understanding.

1 It is useful to keep a comparison between a social unit and an individual in mind, because it shows us, clearly, that societies, be they large or small, have just as much an obligation to become responsible citizens of the world, as we, individuals, have the obligation to become socially responsible and ethical members of our social environment. If we look at the small family-unit, we see, how the "leadership" of a family functions, also, as an ordinary member in the complex, larger society, and, a family leadership realises, at least, intuitively, that it can not behave, solely, with the interest of its own members in mind. A family leadership, such as a responsible parent, knows, that it has to give, not only, honest and open leadership to the members under his or her jurisdiction, but, it has to teach, also, the virtues of ethical or socially responsible behaviour.

2 As a corollary, we see, that national leaderships should assume the responsibility to teach the members under their jurisdiction, that, they too, have to take into consideration the needs and requirements of people in other nations. Here, we see a marked contrast in the behaviour and ethical outlook between the leaders of a family-unit, and those of a national entity. While the leader of a family-unit is nearly always integrated into a larger social order, unless the family lives completely isolated, the leadership of an autonomous nation behaves, often, as if there is no larger social unit to which it is responsible.

3 Indeed, there is really no effective supra-national organisation, as yet, which is able to force member-nations into an attitude of concern and responsibility. What we see, is a rather primitive dominating attitude of a strong social unit towards one that is weaker, and, therefore, the super-powers are, as yet, the only powers to curb effectively the extremes of nationalistic and egocentric behaviour, but, there is, of course, no power to curb their own excesses.

4 We have discussed, on previous occasions, that this difference in attitude is a reflection of the fact, that a small family-unit, or any other sub-grouping within a larger society, is controled by the leadership of a larger entity, and, therefore, the leadership of a sub-grouping does not have the power to behave in a totally autonomous manner. However, there is another important factor. The sphere of ethical concern extends to the nation as a whole, and, all the members of society are, therefore, indoctrinated in a belief that puts the unity of the State, or the Nation, as their highest goal or objective.

5 We see, then, that it is natural for the citizens of a nation to indocrinate or teach their dependents a religious belief, or a philosophy, which advocates the unity of the nation as their highest patriotic duty, but, there is no ethical system, as yet, that extends this parallel to the nations of the world, forming a socially integrated unit within a globally integrated family of mankind.

6 We lack, not only, a coherent global philosophy, as well as a corresponding system of ethical guidelines, but, we also lack a powerful, authoritative supra-national entity, which could function as an overall leader for the many nations that exist already. It would certainly be a step into the right direction, if such a supra-national body would be given the power, and the authority, to enforce a set of global regulations, and, if such a supra-national body could administer a system of global justice and ensure a world-wide standard of human rights and obligations. As long as such a supra-national power does not exist, existing institutions can only reflect the power-struggles between the nations, and, they reflect, then, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the alliances that have been established.

7 Will we ever see the development of a truly supra-national leadership, with sufficient powers to dominate, even, the super-powers? It is unlikely, that the present institution of the United Nations will, indeed, evolve into an organisation with real executive powers and decision-making capabilities. As it stands now, the delegates to the United Nations are representatives of the various governments which have sent them there, and, their allegiance is, primarily, with the power-structure "back home", and not, with the United Nations themselves. As soon as these delegates behave in a way that does not please the leadership back home, they are recalled, reprimanded or dismissed, and, therefore, the United Nations remain a battle-field for the real powers that dominate the international scene.

8 We can only expect a change in this situation, if a majority of people in a majority of nations, is able to agree, that we need a powerful, supra-national organisation, which can conduct the affairs of the world in such a way, that the ideals of justice and equality are being served on a global scale.

9 Our contemporary political or national leaders occupy positions of ultimate power, either, given to them by the elected representatives of the people, or, the position of power and leadership has been "appropriated" with the help of a loyal army, as well as the tacit consent of an influential segment of the population. These political leaders, be they legitimate democratic governments, or varying shades of a dictatorial regime, are never going to abdicate some of their national sovereignty voluntarily, unless their own people force them to do so. They will continue to fight with each other, unless we, the peoples of the world, unite our voices, and demand, that all nations be governed by leaderships that are truly responsible and responsive to the people. We have to demand, that these democratically elected governments work towards the creation of a truly efficient global organisation and a transfer a significant portion of their executive and decision-making powers to such a supra-national body.

10 Certainly, it will require an extensive and honest debate between the peoples of the world, before we can agree amongst ourselves, what such an organisation should look like, and, before we can discuss the establishment of an effective world-parliament with a meaningful and effective executive leadership, we will have to come to some sort of an agreement amongst ourselves about what is fair and just. In order to be able to conduct such a meaningful search for a global code of justice and equality, we will have to agree amongst ourselves about the basic facts of reality, and, we will have to come to the conclusion, that we can not solve our problems, any longer, by walling ourselves off from our competitors with a ring of deadly armour.

11 Peoples of the world, only, if we learn to communicate with each other, often, over the heads of our more conservative leaderships, and, only, if we genuinely agree amongst ourselves to seek our viability in a pact of essential equality and globally implemented social justice, rather than a pact of opportunistic alliances against "the enemy", only, then, do we have a chance to see the emergence of a truly effective global leadership. As we have discussed before, the crux of the matter is, as always, the question, whether we seek security in individualised strength and isolation, or, in integration and cooperation. It is extremely difficult for leaderships of powerful nations to come to the conclusion, that they really have to integrate with those they consider their arch-enemies.

12 Our leaders have such strong territorial instincts, and, by ascending to the leadership of their sovereign national entities, they have reached a position, where there is no "boss" above them. While we, ordinary citizens, have to conduct our leadership functions, in the family, or our own business-enterprise, in such a way, that we abide by the laws of the land, and take the well-being, aspirations and legitimate needs of others into consideration, our national leaders, especially, if they are heading one of the more powerful nations, are immersed in the attitude, that they have to defend the honour and glory of their country; that their country should be second to none; that their society and culture represent the epitomy of human achievement; that God is on their side, and, that their rivals represent everything that is evil and loathesome.

13 While our leaders are, by and large, concerned and ethical people, who dedicate their life to the society they come from, and, often, would give their life, willingly, for the good of the people and the glory of their country, we, ordinary citizens, have to remind our leaders, time and again, that we want them to extend their sphere of concern to other nations. We want them to treat the peoples in other countries as human beings, just like ourselves, and, we want to live with them in a pact of social justice and essential equality.

14 The crux of this shift in attitude, (which is necessary before we can witness a diminished level of tensions and conflicts), is the realisation, that we can and do live in peace with our neighbours, if we both can live in essential equality under the same laws. We have to tell our leaders, first of all, to become responsible world-citizens, and, to be answerable to the judgement and choice of the people. Secondly, we have to tell them to become concerned with the well-being of all the peoples in the world, and, to solve the problems of our particular social environment on a global scale of cooperation and justice.

15 Of course, if we, ordinary people, do not really believe in this philosophy, and, if we want national leaders, who, in essence, look-out and fight for the well-being of their particular social environment or region, or, the special-interest grouping we belong to, we will get a leadership that reflects our egocentric attitudes.

16 But, then, if we get into a serious conflict-situation, and, if we have to send our sons and daughters, again, to war, we have only ourselves to blame, because the seeds of war, suffering and bloodshed were sown, again, years ago, when we opted for an egocentric attitude; when we tried to solve our problems by clinging to a position of privilege; when we ignored the pleas for help and the cries of injustice, whenever our neighbours were treated unfairly.

17 It was, then, in times of peace and prosperity, of benign neglect and ignorance, when we thought that everything was under control and that we were "on top of the world", it was, then, that we sowed the seeds of injustice and resentment, and, now, we have to deal with a full harvest of hatred and hostilities.

18 Then, there will be no need to ask ourselves in disbelief, why the storm-clouds of war and conflict are gathering again. Just as we can be sure, that, sooner or later, our automobile will strand us somewhere on the road, if we neglect to look after it, so can we be sure, that the fruits of social neglect are those of hatred, resentment and injustice, and, we can be sure, that they will come back to haunt us, some day.

19 If we fall for the temptation to defend a privileged position with force, rather than with a pact of justice and essential equality, we invite retaliation, and, sooner or later, after we have grown complacent and weak, revenge will strike, and we will be reduced to poverty and despair. There is no reason, anymore, to live in complete ignorance of these basic facts of human existence. The time has come to understand the nature of our existence, as well as the mechanisms of conflict and strife. These force-fields are there, for all of us to see, and, none of our efforts to ignore or cover-up these basic facts of life, is going to help us cope with reality.

20 Let us think-through, honestly and openly, the behavioural choices that are before us. Let us acknowledge, that we all have to earn, and contribute to, the rights and minimum standards of existence we are entitled to. If we claim and demand our rights, without giving our just and appropriate contributions in return, we live as a parasite off someone else's labours, and, sooner or later, this attitude of parasitism will unleash a violent retribution.

21 We have to learn to manage the forces of reality, as they are presenting themselves to us, and, there is no reason, anymore, why we should be surprised or caught unaware by the events that are happening around us. There is no justification, anymore, for the excuse, that we can not change the world, or the atmosphere of depression, corruption and crime that surrounds us. If we decide to join in the fray and help plunder the loot as long as it lasts, we only become corrupt and criminal ourselves, and, we can be sure, that we are actively contributing to the demise of our social environment, as well as our own existence.

22 It is sobering to realise, how corruptible a creature we are, and, how easily we can be persuaded to join the forces of corruption, war and death. It is sobering to realise, how weak and fragile the living oganisation really is, and, how tentative and egocentric our conscious awarenesses and beliefs still are. Yet, in spite of all this fragility and corruptibility, in spite of the eventual demise of us all, (the living generations, as well as the entire species of mankind), we are all given a chance to participate in this glorious process of understanding, where we contribute, consciously, to the management or design of a just, healthy, viable, and essentially boundless existence of mankind.

.......

Summary

1. A sobering awareness.
If we are a "biological machine", it makes sense to study in detail the relevant biological mechanisms.
The importance of "guided events".
Slowly, the processes of chance-happenings and random distribution were replaced by an environment, where events were directed by templates, catalysts, enzymes and other factors.
The difference between "guidance" and "creation".
The driving forces of a guided event are "blind", without purpose, and without a goal, as they always were.
Man's creations often "evolve", because the feed-back from results, or the criteria of usefulness, influence the subsequent designs of complex tools; e.g., the automobile.
A remarkable parallel with the living organisation.
A confluence between the concepts of guidance and creation, when man "steers", deliberately, a natural event into a specific direction.
Every event is guided by the circumstances under which it takes place.
In the living organisation, the guidance-structures are the result of a long, evolutionary development; these guidance-structures are copied and carefully transmitted from one generation to the next.
Many animals can "create" circumstances that favour the occurrence of a, for them, favourable event; e.g., the capture of a prey.
Man can develop a conscious imagery of what he wants.
Symbolic representation, and the emergence of an incomparably more complex and wide-ranging reality perception.
A sphere of awareness with a very large time-frame.
A sophisticated ability to predict and foresee.
Man's grasp over complex realities is still increasing.
The increasing importance of management and predictability.
The need to manage, carefully, the terrestial life-support systems.

2. We still disagree about the fundamental realities we are confronted with.
Discrepancies between needs and abilities.
Watching, in horror and disbelief, how mankind drifts, helplessly, towards a state of extinction.
What we need to survive.
It is difficult to define, with precision, what constitutes a crisis.
Man has always "bounced back" from adversity in the past.
Learning to see the extent of a devastating crisis, and recognising the erosion of reserves from where recovery has to come.
An increasing dependence on sophisticated technology.
The futility of defending ourselves against perceived enemies with an arsenal of suicidal weapons.
Concepts and tools are the "river-banks" for consciously willed or deliberately created events.
We have become dependent upon a cultural code that is transmitted "externally"; by a process of teaching and education.
The level of control over our individual and collective behaviour-patterns is still inadequate.
A human society behaves like a clumsy life-form with a defective central nervous system.
Another look at the definition of a crisis.
The need to be exposed, frequently, to manageable levels of stress as an "excercise" for our faculties of fore-sight and organisation.
When we can only hope and pray.
In a full-blown crisis-situation, the answers have to become religious, and the behavioural responses will be emotional.
The burden of knowing that we missed the opportunity to avert a crisis, when there was still time to do so.
The nuclear holocaust, interpreted as a fulfilment of Gods Plan.

3. Fore-sight, and the ability to avoid crises.
Appropriate preventative behaviour means, often, the ability to forego the easier, more attractive behavioural choice.
It takes self-discipline and confidence to take into account long-term objectives.
The painful awareness of the certainty of death; the price of the ability to foresee the outcome of events far into the future.
Recent and fragile flowers of natural evolution.
The larger the social unit, the more primitive its behaviour, but a small grouping does not necessarily behave more intelligently than a large social unit.
The mechanisms of social strength and success are still largely unclear, and beyond our control.
It is always tempting to use force as a solution to our problems.
Legal, diplomatic and economic powers.
A large society is most cohesive, when it has to go to war.
Unfortunately, patriotic slogans and facile promises of bellicose leaders blur the awareness of the consequences of warfare.
Large-scale rational behaviour is one of our most difficult accomplishments.
We still lack the intellectual tools to synthesize an appropriate, rational, large-scale social response.
The members of a large-scale social entity need a foundation of security and essential equality.

4. The solution of a political unit with global dimensions.
The rational "will" of an informed world-public is still absent, but it is the only tool that can bring-about a global integration of mankind.
Eventually, we will have to forego the luxury of fighting amongst ourselves.
Unfortunately, environmental conditions will have to get a lot worse, before they can galvanise world-public opinion into a united stance.
The consequences of a lack of adequate fore-sight.
Changing course, before we hit obstacles on the road.
We have to have the ability to verify, afterwards, that our evasive actions were justified.
Developing a "feel" for the momentum of instinctive drives and existential needs.
A rational approach may still be ruthlessly egocentric in outlook.
The need for "rational ethics".
Why we need concepts of fairness, as well as the ability to conduct a thorough analysis.
Emotions and communications; the mechanisms of "emotional synchrony".
The regulatory mechanisms of customs, mores and taboos.
Trust and transparence; the stranger.
Why intellectual capabilities are often abused.
The short-comings of a strong regional or ethnic "flavour" in our attitudes.
The territorial instincts of our leaders.
A colossal arms-race that grows easily beyond rhyme or reason.
There is no need, anymore, for a "citizens's army".

5. The motivation of "fear".
Peace marchers, and the temptation to use violent tactics.
The need to control our fears, and the tendency to clash in a violent confrontation.
When we are motivated by selfish instincts.
Continuing the road of social integration.
We have to create the brain and central nervous system for a social organisation with global dimensions.
A world-wide contract of justice and essential equality.
The need to maintain a status of justice with vigour and vigilance.
The ever-recurring choice; global socialisation or continuing warfare.
If we can fight on a global scale, we should also be able to communicate on a global scale.
Hammering-out a world-wide social contract of essential equality.
A system of ethical concepts, considering all human beings to be relatives of the family of mankind, regardless of religious or political beliefs.
Boosting our personal or collective security may postpone changes that have to come, but the pressures will increase, relentlessly.
A promise to share the burdens and rewards of life as equitably as we can.
The art of management is based on the skills of recognising opportunities and diagnosing problems.
Responding, nearly automatically, in anticipation of expected results.
Continuing the essential trends of the living organisation.
In every stalemate, a break-through will take place, eventually.
Pressures, not insight, led to the evolution of the larger societies, and pressures, not insight, will continue this process.
Political power-blocks are like gigantic tectonic plates, releasing pent-up tensions from time to time in violent eruptions of strife.

6. A new evolutionary stalemate is developing.
The polarisation between the rich and poor.
A few, tragic and costly nuclear accidents are likely to happen.
The nuclear stalemate will prevent a military conquest of the world by anyone particular power-block.
The spread of ideas and concepts can not be prevented.
The growth of public awareness on a global scale will slowly improve the quality of political leadership.
A still rising importance of the cultural code.
An improved intellectual grasp over the mechanisms of motivations and emotions.
Learning from analogies.
Learning how to evaluate the behaviour of an individual and his social surroundings.
A brief review of the structure of the human personality.
A center of emotional near-neutrality.
Constructing a vector-diagram of forces that influence an individual.
We need a useful profile of human behaviour, and a generally acceptable standard of health and normality.
A diagram of social forces that modify and restrain, and, sometimes, actively encourage a specific response.
Monitoring individual and collective developments.
Fluctuating levels of sensitivity to contradictory impulses and stressful situations.
Assigning, consciously, a measure of significance to contradictory stimuli requires a careful analysis.
The sliding scale between egocentric concerns and a concern for the interests of other people.
The ability to sketch a comprehensive view of individual and collective behaviour-patterns.

7. The construction of an "ethical awareness profile".
Distinguishing between ethical and quasi-ethical behaviour-patterns.
A combination of (self-)restraint and voluntary compliance with ethical guidelines.
Enlarging the ability to recognise problems and opportunities.
Developing an individualised pattern of recognition.
Different parameters for scoring ethical behaviour; fear and conviction.
A personality profile based on the common life-cycle of a living organism.
The element of "vitality".
An outline of long-term plans and ambitions.
The underlying "ground-tone" of a personality.
A profile of skills, talents, training and education.
The personal history.
We have to have reliable information, if we want to understand what is happening within or between us.
The profile of a social entity; a definition.
Assigning a general mood, or atmosphere, to social relationships.
Localised "hot spots", or areas of friction.
We can deal with local frictions and occasional incidences of injustice, if the overall mood and status-quo is healthy or sound.
A profile of attitudes and relationships, obtained with accurate monitoring techniques.
Discovering the reasons why relationships have a tendency to sour.
Scrutinising, continuously, the requirements of good leadership.
A system for evaluating and comparing the performance of all social functions.
Building-up a profile of relationships between social units.

8. It is useful to keep the similarities between a social unit and an individual in mind.
The natural leadership qualities of the head of a family-unit.
Trying to emulate the qualities of good family-leaders for the leadership of large social entities.
There is no effective supra-national organisation, as yet.
The draw-back of totally autonomous or independent behaviour.
A look at the contemporary structure of the United Nations.
World-public opinion will have to compel national or regional political leaderships to transfer a significant amount of power and autonomy to a supra-national body.
The establishment of an effective world-parliament.
An address to the peoples of the world.
Why our leaders fail us.
A necessary shift in attitude.
We have to believe in the need for global integration, before we can support it.
Let us think about the consequences of continuing "the old way".
Sowing the seeds of injustice, when we are "on top of the world".
Dealing with a harvest of hatred and revenge.
The temptation to defend a privileged position at all costs.
The consequences are there, for all of us to see.
We have to learn to manage the forces of reality, as they are presenting themselves to us.
It is sobering to realise, how corruptible a creature we are.
We all are given a chance to participate in this glorious process of understanding.

.......